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Ligue 1
Referee: C Turpin
Nice
T S S T S
1–1
Full-time
Marseille
U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,8
2,3
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 55%
60%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
60%
50%
Both score Ø 40%
30%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,9
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
0,7
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

45% Possession 55%
11 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 5
8 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nice 3. · Marseille 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 11 9 1 1 +14 28
2 Lens 11 6 3 2 +8 21
3 Nice 10 6 2 2 +13 20
4 Marseille 10 5 3 2 +7 18
5 Rennes 11 5 3 3 +7 18
6 Angers 11 4 5 2 +4 17
7 Nantes 11 5 2 4 +4 17
8 Monaco 11 5 2 4 +3 17
9 Lyon 11 4 4 3 +2 16
10 Lille 11 4 3 4 -2 15
11 Lorient 11 3 6 2 -2 15
12 Strasbourg 11 4 2 5 +2 14
13 Montpellier 11 3 4 4 -1 13
14 Clermont 11 3 4 4 -8 13
15 Troyes 11 3 3 5 -4 12
16 Reims 11 2 5 4 -2 11
17 Bordeaux 11 1 6 4 -9 9
18 Brest 11 0 6 5 -8 6
19 Metz 11 1 3 7 -14 6
20 St Etienne 11 0 5 6 -14 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nice Marseille
Justin Kluivert 🟨
-5′
Kasper Dolberg 🟨
-5′
1–0 A. Gouiri
E. Guessand
6′
Evann Guessand 🟨
31′
42′
D. Payet 1–1
Gerson
Half-time 1–1
M. Lemina 🔁
↦ E. Guessand
52′
H. Boudaoui 🔁
↦ L. Da Cunha
66′
A. Claude Maurice 🔁
↦ H. Kamara
67′
71′
🔁 B. Kamara
↦ J. Amavi
83′
🔁 C. Dieng
↦ A. Milik
84′
🔁 Luan Peres
↦ M. Guendouzi
92′
🟨 Pau López
Jean-Clair Todibo 🟨
93′
94′
🟨 Boubacar Kamara
Mario Lemina 🟨
95′
Melvin Bard 🟨
95′
95′
🟨 Boubacar Kamara
95′
🟨 Luan Peres
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Nice

4-4-2
40 W. Benítez G
4 Dante D
20 Y. Atal D
25 J. Todibo D
26 M. Bard D
13 H. Kamara M
8 P. Rosario M
19 K. Thuram-Ulien M
11 A. Gouiri F
29 L. Da Cunha M
24 E. Guessand F
Bench (11)
18 M. Lemina
28 H. Boudaoui
10 A. Claude Maurice
1 M. Bulka
23 J. Lotomba
5 F. Daniliuc
6 M. Schneiderlin
16 T. Boulhendi
33 J. Smith
9 K. Dolberg
21 J. Kluivert

Coach: C. Galtier

Marseille

3-5-1-1
16 Pau López G
3 Álvaro González D
23 J. Amavi M
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
2 W. Saliba D
10 D. Payet F
8 Gerson M
6 M. Guendouzi M
22 P. Gueye M
9 A. Milik F
11 Luis Henrique M
Bench (9)
4 B. Kamara
12 C. Dieng
14 Luan Peres
32 S. Ben Seghir
26 O. Targhalline
17 C. Ünder
20 K. De La Fuente
21 V. Rongier
30 S. Mandanda

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,45
U ✓
3,40
B
2,87
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,90
U2,5 ✓
1,92
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.