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Ligue 1
Referee: M Lesage
Marseille
U S S S U
2–3
Full-time
Lens
S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lens
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,5
This season — Ligue 1 · 6/7 matches
Win Ø 55%
67%
43%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
50%
43%
Both score Ø 54%
50%
57%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,6
Conceded
0,8
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

60% Possession 40%
14 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 7
3 Offside 0
4 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 3. · Lens 6.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 8 8 0 0 +15 24
2 Nice 7 4 2 1 +12 14
3 Marseille 6 4 2 0 +7 14
4 Angers 8 3 4 1 +4 13
5 Lorient 8 3 4 1 +1 13
6 Lens 7 3 3 1 +3 12
7 Lyon 8 3 3 2 +1 12
8 Monaco 8 3 2 3 +0 11
9 Lille 8 3 2 3 -3 11
10 Nantes 8 3 1 4 +1 10
11 Reims 8 2 4 2 +1 10
12 Strasbourg 8 3 1 4 -1 10
13 Rennes 8 2 3 3 +1 9
14 Montpellier 8 2 3 3 +0 9
15 Clermont 8 2 3 3 -8 9
16 Bordeaux 8 1 4 3 -6 7
17 Troyes 8 1 3 4 -4 6
18 Metz 8 1 3 4 -7 6
19 Brest 8 0 4 4 -7 4
20 St Etienne 8 0 3 5 -10 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Lens
Pape Gueye 🟨
6′
6′
ℹ️ Seko Fofana
VAR: Penalty awarded
Mattéo Guendouzi 🟨
7′
9′
F. Sotoca 0–1
27′
P. Frankowski 0–2
F. Sotoca
1–2 D. Payet
33′
Half-time 1–2
Pol Lirola 🔁
↦ V. Rongier
46′
K. De La Fuente 🔁
↦ P. Gueye
46′
2–2 D. Payet
48′
A. Harit 🔁
↦ C. Dieng
63′
63′
🔁 W. Saïd
↦ A. Kalimuendo-Muinga
63′
🔁 G. Kakuta
↦ David Costa
70′
🔁 J. Clauss
↦ D. Machado
71′
W. Saïd 2–3
F. Sotoca
83′
🔁 M. Haïdara
↦ J. Gradit
Luis Henrique 🔁
↦ Gerson
89′
93′
🟨 Wesley Saïd
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Marseille

3-3-1-3
16 Pau López G
14 Luan Peres D
5 L. Balerdi D
2 W. Saliba D
10 D. Payet F
21 V. Rongier M
8 Gerson M
17 C. Ünder F
6 M. Guendouzi M
22 P. Gueye M
12 C. Dieng F
Bench (9)
29 Pol Lirola
20 K. De La Fuente
7 A. Harit
11 Luis Henrique
15 D. Ćaleta-Car
39 B. Nadir
3 Álvaro González
30 S. Mandanda
23 A. Caprice

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Lens

3-4-3
16 J. Leca G
24 J. Gradit D
3 D. Machado M
14 F. Medina D
5 C. Wooh D
8 S. Fofana M
29 P. Frankowski M
28 C. Doucouré M
20 David Costa F
7 F. Sotoca F
15 A. Kalimuendo-Muinga F
Bench (9)
22 W. Saïd
10 G. Kakuta
11 J. Clauss
21 M. Haïdara
9 I. Ganago
19 I. Boura
27 C. Boli
18 Y. Cahuzac
1 W. Fariñez

Coach: F. Haise

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,79
U
3,78
B ✓
4,52
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,89
U2,5
1,94
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Lesage · 143 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.