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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Liverpool

T S U S S

3–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

67%

22%

Points per game

2,2

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

78%

44%

Both score Ø 73%

78%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

2,2

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,19 xG 0,45

73% Possession 27%

21 Shots 9

8 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 4. · Nott'm Forest 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	8	2	0	+13	+5.0	26
2	Arsenal	10	7	3	0	+15	+10.9	24
3	Man City	9	7	0	2	+12	+9.7	21
4	Liverpool	9	6	2	1	+11	+7.5	20
5	Aston Villa	9	6	1	2	+10	+3.3	19
6	Newcastle	10	5	2	3	+15	+11.7	17
7	Brighton	9	5	1	3	+4	+2.6	16
8	Man United	9	5	0	4	-2	+0.2	15
9	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	-5.0	14
10	Brentford	10	3	4	3	+4	+6.5	13
11	Chelsea	10	3	3	4	+2	+7.1	12
12	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-4	-4.5	12
13	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-5	-3.5	12
14	Fulham	9	3	2	4	-7	-7.5	11
15	Nott'm Forest	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.8	10
16	Everton	10	3	1	6	-4	+2.6	10
17	Bournemouth	10	1	3	6	-13	-11.2	6
18	Luton	9	1	2	6	-9	-6.4	5
19	Burnley	10	1	1	8	-17	-10.9	4
20	Sheffield United	10	0	1	9	-22	-16.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	4	2	0	+9	+6.8	14
2	Aston Villa	4	4	0	0	+14	+5.1	12
3	Newcastle	5	4	0	1	+10	+7.4	12
4	Liverpool	4	4	0	0	+9	+7.6	12
5	Man City	4	4	0	0	+8	+1.8	12
6	Tottenham	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.5	12
7	Brighton	5	3	1	1	+5	+1.5	10
8	Man United	5	3	0	2	+0	+1.6	9
9	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.3	7
10	Brentford	5	1	3	1	+1	+3.2	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.1	6
12	Fulham	4	2	0	2	-2	-2.6	6
13	Chelsea	6	1	2	3	-1	+3.9	5
14	Crystal Palace	5	1	2	2	-1	-1.1	5
15	Wolves	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.6	5
16	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-6	-6.1	5
17	Everton	5	1	0	4	-1	+4.6	3
18	Luton	4	0	1	3	-3	+1.1	1
19	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-11	-8.4	1
20	Burnley	5	0	0	5	-12	-5.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	+2.5	14
2	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.1	10
3	Man City	5	3	0	2	+4	+7.9	9
4	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	+2	-0.2	8
5	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
6	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.4	7
7	Wolves	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.9	7
8	West Ham	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.7	7
9	Everton	5	2	1	2	-3	-2.0	7
10	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	-4	-1.8	7
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-4	-2.4	7
12	Brighton	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.0	6
13	Man United	4	2	0	2	-2	-1.4	6
14	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+5	+4.3	5
15	Fulham	5	1	2	2	-5	-4.9	5
16	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-3	-2.9	4
17	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	-5.3	4
18	Luton	5	1	1	3	-6	-7.5	4
19	Bournemouth	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.1	1
20	Sheffield United	5	0	0	5	-11	-7.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.