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Ligue 1

Referee: Jérôme Brisard

Lille

T T S S S

1–0

Full-time

Marseille

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 61%

57%

64%

Points per game

1,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

43%

71%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,35 xG 0,53

42% Possession 58%

5 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 4. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	14	10	1	3	+12	+5.4	31
2	Paris SG	14	9	3	2	+15	+12.5	30
3	Marseille	14	9	2	3	+21	+13.2	29
4	Lille	14	8	2	4	+11	+10.0	26
5	Rennes	14	6	6	2	+6	-0.5	24
6	Lyon	14	7	3	4	+6	+7.3	24
7	Monaco	15	7	2	6	+0	+3.2	23
8	Strasbourg	14	7	1	6	+6	+6.8	22
9	Brest	15	5	4	6	-4	+1.6	19
10	Toulouse	14	4	5	5	+1	+0.8	17
11	Nice	14	5	2	7	-7	-11.4	17
12	Angers	14	4	4	6	-5	-13.0	16
13	Paris FC	14	4	3	7	-5	-3.1	15
14	Le Havre	14	3	5	6	-8	-2.2	14
15	Lorient	14	3	5	6	-10	-1.2	14
16	Nantes	14	2	5	7	-10	-12.5	11
17	Metz	14	3	2	9	-17	-10.8	11
18	Auxerre	14	2	3	9	-12	-6.2	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
2	Marseille	7	5	2	0	+15	+12.1	17
3	Lille	7	5	1	1	+9	+9.0	16
4	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+9	+7.2	16
5	Monaco	8	5	1	2	+4	+5.7	16
6	Strasbourg	7	5	0	2	+10	+10.0	15
7	Lyon	7	5	0	2	+7	+7.0	15
8	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+8	+5.0	14
9	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	-3.0	13
10	Lorient	7	3	3	1	+2	+2.0	12
11	Brest	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.3	12
12	Angers	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.4	11
13	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	+2	+4.3	9
14	Le Havre	7	2	3	2	+1	+5.4	9
15	Paris FC	7	2	2	3	+0	+2.2	8
16	Metz	7	2	2	3	-2	-0.3	8
17	Auxerre	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.1	7
18	Nantes	7	1	2	4	-6	-5.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	4	2	2	+6	+5.3	14
2	Lens	7	4	1	2	+2	-3.1	13
3	Marseille	7	4	0	3	+6	+1.1	12
4	Lille	7	3	1	3	+2	+1.0	10
5	Rennes	7	2	4	1	-2	-5.5	10
6	Lyon	7	2	3	2	-1	+0.2	9
7	Toulouse	7	2	2	3	-1	-3.5	8
8	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.1	7
9	Monaco	7	2	1	4	-4	-2.5	7
10	Paris FC	7	2	1	4	-5	-5.3	7
11	Brest	7	2	1	4	-5	-4.7	7
12	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-4	-6.8	6
13	Angers	7	1	2	4	-7	-9.6	5
14	Le Havre	7	1	2	4	-9	-7.5	5
15	Nice	7	1	1	5	-8	-8.5	4
16	Metz	7	1	0	6	-15	-10.5	3
17	Auxerre	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.1	2
18	Lorient	7	0	2	5	-12	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.