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Ligue 1
Referee: S Frappart
Marseille
T U S T S
0–0
Full-time
Lille
U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,2
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
83%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,5
1,7
Scored
1,7
1,3
Conceded
1,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 9/10 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
56%
30%
Both score Ø 47%
44%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,4
Scored
1,3
1,4
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,80 xG 0,30
46% Possession 54%
8 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 1
0 Blocked shots 8
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 8
3 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 11. · Lille 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 11 7 3 1 +17 +13.3 24
2 Nice 10 6 4 0 +7 +7.0 22
3 Monaco 10 6 2 2 +9 +6.4 20
4 Lille 10 5 3 2 +4 +4.2 18
5 Reims 10 5 2 3 +4 +3.9 17
6 Brest 10 4 3 3 +0 +1.1 15
7 Nantes 10 4 2 4 -3 -7.4 14
8 Lens 11 3 4 4 -1 +3.7 13
9 Rennes 10 2 6 2 +3 +4.7 12
10 Montpellier 10 3 3 4 +1 +3.0 12
11 Marseille 9 3 3 3 +0 +7.4 12
12 Toulouse 10 2 5 3 -2 -9.7 11
13 Le Havre 10 2 5 3 -2 -5.1 11
14 Lorient 11 2 5 4 -5 -7.2 11
15 Strasbourg 10 3 2 5 -6 -3.2 11
16 Metz 10 2 3 5 -8 -8.2 9
17 Clermont 9 1 2 6 -7 -6.3 5
18 Lyon 9 0 3 6 -11 -7.8 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Lille
27′
🟨 Benjamin André
Amine Harit 🟨
42′
Half-time 0–0
Samuel Gigot 🟨
53′
B. Meité 🔁
↦ S. Gigot
68′
I. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ J. Veretout
68′
70′
🟨 Nabil Bentaleb
71′
🔁 A. Ounas
↦ Ivan Cavaleiro
73′
🟨 Yusuf Yazıcı
J. Correa 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
77′
Vítinha 🔁
↦ I. Sarr
77′
79′
🔁 R. Cabella
↦ E. Zhegrova
90′
🔁 H. Haraldsson
↦ A. Gomes
90′
🔁 J. David
↦ Y. Yazıcı
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-3-3
16 Pau López G
7 J. Clauss D
4 S. Gigot D
99 C. Mbemba D
12 Renan Lodi D
19 G. Kondogbia M
21 V. Rongier M
27 J. Veretout M
23 I. Sarr F
10 P. Aubameyang F
11 A. Harit F
Bench (9)
18 B. Meité
29 I. Ndiaye
20 J. Correa
9 Vítinha
66 N. Mayoka-Tika
62 A. Murillo
36 Rubén Blanco
37 E. Soglo
34 B. Nadir

Coach: G. Gattuso

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
22 Tiago Santos D
15 L. Yoro D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
31 Ismaily D
21 B. André M
6 N. Bentaleb M
23 E. Zhegrova M
8 A. Gomes M
17 Ivan Cavaleiro M
12 Y. Yazıcı F
Bench (9)
11 A. Ounas
10 R. Cabella
7 H. Haraldsson
9 J. David
13 A. Zedadka
32 A. Bouaddi
5 G. Gudmundsson
1 V. Mannone
14 S. Umtiti

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,23
U ✓
3,54
B
3,22
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,86
U2,5 ✓
1,97
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

S Frappart · 124 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.