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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoît Millot

Lille

S T S T T

4–2

Full-time

Paris FC

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Paris FC

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

42%

58%

Both score Ø 55%

42%

67%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,9

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

4,03 xG 1,52

52% Possession 48%

17 Shots 6

10 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 4

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 7. · Paris FC 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	9	3	1	+16	+11.7	30
2	Marseille	13	9	1	3	+21	+12.1	28
3	Lens	13	9	1	3	+11	+4.5	28
4	Strasbourg	13	7	1	5	+7	+7.1	22
5	Rennes	13	5	6	2	+5	-0.2	21
6	Lyon	13	6	3	4	+3	+5.8	21
7	Lille	12	6	2	4	+8	+7.0	20
8	Monaco	13	6	2	5	+0	+4.9	20
9	Nice	13	5	2	6	-5	-9.9	17
10	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	+1	+1.9	16
11	Angers	13	4	4	5	-4	-12.1	16
12	Paris FC	12	4	2	6	-3	-1.3	14
13	Le Havre	13	3	5	5	-7	-1.7	14
14	Brest	13	3	4	6	-6	+0.4	13
15	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-7	-11.0	11
16	Lorient	13	2	5	6	-12	-2.8	11
17	Metz	13	3	2	8	-16	-11.0	11
18	Auxerre	13	2	2	9	-12	-5.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
2	Marseille	6	5	1	0	+15	+11.0	16
3	Paris SG	6	5	1	0	+9	+7.2	16
4	Strasbourg	6	5	0	1	+11	+10.2	15
5	Rennes	7	4	2	1	+8	+5.0	14
6	Lille	6	4	1	1	+7	+6.5	13
7	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	+6.5	13
8	Nice	7	4	1	2	+1	-3.0	13
9	Lyon	6	4	0	2	+4	+5.5	12
10	Angers	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.5	11
11	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	+2	+4.3	9
12	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+2	+5.8	9
13	Lorient	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.4	9
14	Brest	7	2	3	2	+0	+5.4	9
15	Metz	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
16	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	+0	+1.5	7
17	Auxerre	7	2	1	4	-2	-0.1	7
18	Nantes	7	1	2	4	-6	-5.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.5	14
2	Marseille	7	4	0	3	+6	+1.1	12
3	Lens	6	3	1	2	+1	-3.9	10
4	Lyon	7	2	3	2	-1	+0.2	9
5	Lille	6	2	1	3	+1	+0.5	7
6	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	-2.4	7
7	Monaco	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.5	7
8	Rennes	6	1	4	1	-3	-5.3	7
9	Paris FC	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.8	7
10	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-4	-3.1	7
11	Nantes	6	1	3	2	-1	-5.4	6
12	Angers	7	1	2	4	-7	-9.6	5
13	Le Havre	7	1	2	4	-9	-7.5	5
14	Nice	6	1	1	4	-6	-6.9	4
15	Brest	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.9	4
16	Metz	7	1	0	6	-15	-10.5	3
17	Lorient	7	0	2	5	-12	-3.2	2
18	Auxerre	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.