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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Monaco

S U S U T

3–2

Full-time

Marseille

S U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,02 xG 1,01

46% Possession 54%

10 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monaco 4. · Marseille 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brest	6	4	1	1	+2	+3.0	13
2	Paris SG	7	3	3	1	+8	+8.3	12
3	Nice	6	3	3	0	+4	+3.9	12
4	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.7	11
5	Reims	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.4	10
6	Strasbourg	7	3	1	3	-2	+0.2	10
7	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+3	-2.3	9
8	Marseille	6	2	3	1	-1	+4.3	9
9	Rennes	6	1	5	0	+4	+4.9	8
10	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+0	-5.3	8
11	Lille	6	2	2	2	-1	+3.2	8
12	Metz	6	2	2	2	-3	-5.5	8
13	Lens	7	2	1	4	-5	+0.6	7
14	Montpellier	6	1	3	2	+0	+1.0	6
15	Lorient	6	1	3	2	-2	-4.2	6
16	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	-7.7	6
17	Clermont	7	0	2	5	-7	-4.0	2
18	Lyon	6	0	2	4	-8	-7.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+5	+3.1	7
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
3	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+2	+3.5	7
4	Brest	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.9	7
5	Monaco	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.8	6
6	Le Havre	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.7	6
7	Lille	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
8	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+6.2	5
9	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
10	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
11	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	-3.7	5
12	Lens	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.3	4
13	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.3	3
14	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
15	Metz	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.9	1
18	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.9	7
2	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
3	Brest	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.0	6
4	Metz	3	2	0	1	-2	-5.1	6
5	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+3	+5.2	5
6	Monaco	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.9	5
7	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.3	4
8	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.6	4
9	Le Havre	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.0	3
10	Rennes	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.3	3
11	Nantes	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
12	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.3	3
13	Lens	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.7	3
14	Lille	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.3	2
15	Marseille	3	0	2	1	-4	+1.8	2
16	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.3	1
17	Clermont	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
18	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.