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Ligue 1
Referee: B Dechepy
Lille
S T S S S
0–0
Full-time
Nice
T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Nice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
1,8
0,7
Conceded
0,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 40%
55%
24%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
45%
55%
Both score Ø 50%
41%
59%
Average goals
2,9
3,1
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
1,2
1,9
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,54 xG 0,19
62% Possession 38%
9 Shots 5
2 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 10
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lille 3. · Nice 15.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 27 20 3 4 +38 +35.0 63
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 +28 +20.1 62
3 Lille 29 16 5 8 +15 +15.0 53
4 Marseille 30 16 4 10 +18 +14.5 52
5 Lyon 29 15 6 8 +14 +6.1 51
6 Rennes 29 14 8 7 +8 +1.0 50
7 Monaco 29 15 4 10 +7 +7.6 49
8 Strasbourg 28 12 7 9 +12 +12.5 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 -4 -1.9 41
10 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 -1 -1.7 37
11 Brest 28 10 6 12 -6 -2.5 36
12 Paris FC 29 8 11 10 -8 -13.0 35
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 -14 -19.3 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 -13 -11.8 30
15 Nice 29 7 7 15 -22 -15.4 28
16 Auxerre 29 5 9 15 -14 -7.7 24
17 Nantes 28 4 7 17 -21 -14.3 19
18 Metz 29 3 6 20 -37 -24.2 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lille Nice
13′
ℹ️ Elye Wahi
VAR: Goal cancelled
Ngal'ayel Mukau 🟨
21′
Chancel Mbemba 🟨
30′
Half-time 0–0
O. Giroud 🔁
↦ N. Mukau
56′
E. Mbappe 🔁
↦ F. Correia
56′
Romain Perraud ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
71′
O. Sahraoui 🔁
↦ A. Bouaddi
78′
83′
🔁 I. Jansson
↦ J. Clauss
83′
🔁 T. Louchet
↦ M. Cho
84′
🔁 D. Coulibaly
↦ T. Ndombele
90′
🔁 K. Boudache
↦ S. Diop
90′
🔁 T. Gouveia
↦ E. Wahi
G. Perrin 🔁
↦ M. Fernandez-Pardo
91′
97′
🟨 Isak Jansson
Berke Özer 🟨
98′
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
1 B. Ozer G
12 T. Meunier D
18 C. Mbemba D
23 A. Mandi D
15 R. Perraud D
21 B. Andre M
32 A. Bouaddi M
17 N. Mukau M
10 H. Haraldsson M
27 F. Correia M
7 M. Fernandez-Pardo F
Bench (9)
16 A. Bodart
9 O. Giroud
11 O. Sahraoui
4 Alexsandro
8 E. Mbappe
20 N. Edjouma
24 C. Verdonk
28 G. Perrin
22 T. Santos

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Nice

5-4-1
80 Y. Diouf G
92 J. Clauss D
33 A. Mendy D
28 J. Bah D
37 K. Peprah D
26 M. Bard D
25 M. Cho M
99 S. Abdul Samed M
22 T. Ndombele M
10 S. Diop M
11 E. Wahi F
Bench (9)
31 M. Dupe
2 A. Abdi
32 K. Boudache
47 T. Gouveia
21 I. Jansson
20 T. Louchet
36 B. Mantsounga
23 G. Bernardeau
39 D. Coulibaly

Coach: Claude Puel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,50
U ✓
4,15
B
6,23
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,76
U2,5 ✓
1,99
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

B Dechepy · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.