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Serie B

Referee: R Abisso

Spezia

T U T T T

6–1

Full-time

Sudtirol

U T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Sudtirol

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

2,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 23%

21%

24%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

41%

38%

Both score Ø 55%

53%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,1

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,49 xG 0,36

66% Possession 34%

19 Shots 5

9 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Spezia 20. · Sudtirol 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	34	21	9	4	+39	+30.9	72
2	Monza	35	21	9	5	+29	+16.5	72
3	Frosinone	34	19	12	3	+32	+9.9	69
4	Palermo	34	18	11	5	+27	+11.0	65
5	Catanzaro	34	14	13	7	+11	-0.2	55
6	Modena	34	14	10	10	+15	+7.2	52
7	Juve Stabia	34	11	15	8	+0	-0.2	48
8	Cesena	34	12	8	14	-8	+4.2	44
9	Carrarese	34	10	12	12	-1	-5.3	42
10	Sudtirol	34	8	16	10	-1	-2.4	40
11	Mantova	34	11	7	16	-9	-0.1	40
12	Sampdoria	35	10	10	15	-13	-2.1	40
13	Avellino	34	10	10	14	-16	-14.1	40
14	Padova	34	9	10	15	-12	-12.1	37
15	Empoli	34	8	12	14	-6	+3.5	36
16	Virtus Entella	34	8	11	15	-15	-9.7	35
17	Bari	34	8	10	16	-20	-19.8	34
18	Reggiana	34	8	9	17	-19	-10.3	33
19	Pescara	34	7	11	16	-14	-3.4	32
20	Spezia	34	7	9	18	-19	-3.7	30

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	17	15	0	2	+28	+18.5	45
2	Monza	17	13	3	1	+21	+12.6	42
3	Palermo	17	12	4	1	+23	+8.7	40
4	Frosinone	17	10	5	2	+19	+8.4	35
5	Juve Stabia	17	8	8	1	+11	+5.4	32
6	Catanzaro	17	8	8	1	+10	+2.5	32
7	Sampdoria	18	8	5	5	+1	+2.6	29
8	Modena	17	8	4	5	+11	+1.3	28
9	Virtus Entella	17	7	7	3	+7	-1.4	28
10	Carrarese	17	7	6	4	+9	+4.3	27
11	Mantova	17	8	3	6	+0	+4.5	27
12	Avellino	17	7	5	5	-2	-4.7	26
13	Cesena	17	6	5	6	+0	+5.4	23
14	Bari	17	6	5	6	-1	-7.2	23
15	Empoli	17	4	10	3	+6	+8.0	22
16	Sudtirol	17	5	6	6	+1	-2.3	21
17	Reggiana	17	5	6	6	-3	-4.7	21
18	Pescara	17	5	5	7	+2	-1.4	20
19	Padova	17	4	7	6	-3	-5.2	19
20	Spezia	17	4	5	8	-8	+0.8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	17	9	7	1	+13	+1.5	34
2	Monza	18	8	6	4	+8	+3.9	30
3	Venezia	17	6	9	2	+11	+12.4	27
4	Palermo	17	6	7	4	+4	+2.4	25
5	Modena	17	6	6	5	+4	+5.9	24
6	Catanzaro	17	6	5	6	+1	-2.7	23
7	Cesena	17	6	3	8	-8	-1.2	21
8	Sudtirol	17	3	10	4	-2	-0.1	19
9	Padova	17	5	3	9	-9	-6.9	18
10	Juve Stabia	17	3	7	7	-11	-5.6	16
11	Carrarese	17	3	6	8	-10	-9.5	15
12	Empoli	17	4	2	11	-12	-4.5	14
13	Avellino	17	3	5	9	-14	-9.4	14
14	Mantova	17	3	4	10	-9	-4.5	13
15	Spezia	17	3	4	10	-11	-4.5	13
16	Pescara	17	2	6	9	-16	-2.0	12
17	Reggiana	17	3	3	11	-16	-5.7	12
18	Sampdoria	17	2	5	10	-14	-4.7	11
19	Bari	17	2	5	10	-19	-12.6	11
20	Virtus Entella	17	1	4	12	-22	-8.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.