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Bundesliga

Referee: H Lechner

Sturm Graz

U U U U S

2–0

Full-time

SK Rapid

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sturm Graz SK Rapid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 44%

48%

39%

Points per game

1,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

42%

39%

Both score Ø 57%

58%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,75 xG 0,20

67% Possession 33%

22 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sturm Graz 2. · SK Rapid 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	31	16	7	8	+11	+12.9	55
2	Sturm Graz	31	15	8	8	+14	+8.7	53
3	Salzburg	31	13	9	9	+17	+10.2	48
4	Austria Vienna	31	14	5	12	-2	-0.2	47
5	SK Rapid	31	12	8	11	-3	-1.7	44
6	Altach	32	10	12	10	-3	-4.1	42
7	Ried	32	12	6	14	-4	-3.3	42
8	Wolfsberger AC	32	11	8	13	-1	-11.4	41
9	Tirol	32	10	10	12	-12	+0.1	40
10	Hartberg	31	9	12	10	-2	-14.1	39
11	Grazer AK	32	9	10	13	-3	+0.3	37
12	BW Linz	32	8	5	19	-12	+2.5	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	16	10	3	3	+9	+10.2	33
2	Altach	16	8	6	2	+6	+3.6	30
3	Ried	16	8	3	5	+3	+1.9	27
4	Tirol	16	7	5	4	+3	+3.6	26
5	Grazer AK	16	6	7	3	+6	+3.1	25
6	Wolfsberger AC	16	6	6	4	+5	-2.6	24
7	SK Rapid	16	7	2	7	-1	-0.4	23
8	Salzburg	15	6	4	5	+8	+5.0	22
9	BW Linz	16	7	1	8	+5	+6.3	22
10	Austria Vienna	15	6	3	6	-5	+1.3	21
11	Sturm Graz	15	5	5	5	-2	+3.9	20
12	Hartberg	16	4	5	7	-6	-5.1	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	16	10	3	3	+16	+4.8	33
2	Salzburg	16	7	5	4	+9	+5.2	26
3	Austria Vienna	16	8	2	6	+3	-1.5	26
4	Hartberg	15	5	7	3	+4	-9.0	22
5	LASK	15	6	4	5	+2	+2.7	22
6	SK Rapid	15	5	6	4	-2	-1.3	21
7	Wolfsberger AC	16	5	2	9	-6	-8.8	17
8	Ried	16	4	3	9	-7	-5.2	15
9	Tirol	16	3	5	8	-15	-3.5	14
10	Grazer AK	16	3	3	10	-9	-2.9	12
11	Altach	16	2	6	8	-9	-7.7	12
12	BW Linz	16	1	4	11	-17	-3.8	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.