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Super League

Referee: U Schnyder

Lugano

S S S T U

4–0

Full-time

Basel

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Basel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,7

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 46%

49%

43%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

46%

62%

Both score Ø 62%

62%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,39 xG 1,22

53% Possession 47%

20 Shots 14

10 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lugano 3. · Basel 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	37	24	2	11	+28	+0.6	74
2	St. Gallen	37	20	9	8	+25	+10.4	69
3	Lugano	37	18	10	9	+13	+1.8	64
4	Sion	37	16	14	7	+23	+14.0	62
5	Basel	37	16	8	13	+1	+10.4	56
6	Young Boys	37	15	9	13	+11	+2.6	54
7	Luzern	38	14	11	13	+10	+4.1	53
8	Servette	38	13	14	11	+8	+14.3	53
9	Lausanne	38	11	9	18	-14	+2.7	42
10	Zurich	38	11	5	22	-23	-11.4	38
11	Grasshoppers	38	8	9	21	-26	-21.4	33
12	Winterthur	38	5	8	25	-56	-28.0	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	19	12	2	5	+16	-1.3	38
2	Lugano	18	11	3	4	+12	+0.3	36
3	Sion	19	9	7	3	+15	+7.3	34
4	St. Gallen	18	10	2	6	+10	+13.6	32
5	Young Boys	18	9	4	5	+18	+12.8	31
6	Basel	19	8	6	5	+8	+19.4	30
7	Servette	19	7	7	5	+8	+8.3	28
8	Lausanne	19	6	5	8	+0	+12.0	23
9	Luzern	19	5	7	7	+4	+4.6	22
10	Zurich	19	7	1	11	-7	-2.1	22
11	Grasshoppers	19	4	5	10	-8	-7.8	17
12	Winterthur	19	3	5	11	-20	-6.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	19	10	7	2	+15	-3.3	37
2	Thun	18	12	0	6	+12	+1.9	36
3	Luzern	19	9	4	6	+6	-0.5	31
4	Sion	18	7	7	4	+8	+6.7	28
5	Lugano	19	7	7	5	+1	+1.4	28
6	Basel	18	8	2	8	-7	-9.0	26
7	Servette	19	6	7	6	+0	+6.0	25
8	Young Boys	19	6	5	8	-7	-10.1	23
9	Lausanne	19	5	4	10	-14	-9.3	19
10	Zurich	19	4	4	11	-16	-9.3	16
11	Grasshoppers	19	4	4	11	-18	-13.6	16
12	Winterthur	19	2	3	14	-36	-21.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.