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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Man City

S S S T S

3–1

Full-time

Bournemouth

U U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

56%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

44%

56%

Both score Ø 45%

33%

56%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,22 xG 0,72

48% Possession 52%

15 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 8. · Bournemouth 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	10	8	1	1	+15	+11.7	25
2	Bournemouth	9	5	3	1	+5	-0.1	18
3	Liverpool	10	6	0	4	+4	+4.9	18
4	Tottenham	10	5	2	3	+9	-4.5	17
5	Chelsea	10	5	2	3	+7	+3.8	17
6	Sunderland	9	5	2	2	+4	-1.8	17
7	Man United	10	5	2	3	+1	+2.0	17
8	Man City	9	5	1	3	+10	+6.7	16
9	Crystal Palace	10	4	4	2	+5	+6.2	16
10	Brighton	10	4	3	3	+2	+4.0	15
11	Aston Villa	10	4	3	3	-1	-5.2	15
12	Brentford	10	4	1	5	-2	+1.2	13
13	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-1	+3.7	12
14	Fulham	10	3	2	5	-2	-2.8	11
15	Everton	9	3	2	4	-3	-1.5	11
16	Leeds	10	3	2	5	-8	+0.1	11
17	Burnley	10	3	1	6	-7	-13.8	10
18	West Ham	10	2	1	7	-11	-6.3	7
19	Nott'm Forest	10	1	3	6	-12	-4.8	6
20	Wolves	10	0	2	8	-15	-3.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	5	4	1	0	+11	+7.1	13
2	Bournemouth	5	4	1	0	+6	+2.4	13
3	Man United	5	4	0	1	+5	+5.3	12
4	Liverpool	5	4	0	1	+5	+2.9	12
5	Brighton	5	3	2	0	+5	+3.3	11
6	Sunderland	4	3	1	0	+6	+0.6	10
7	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+5	+0.3	10
8	Brentford	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.4	10
9	Aston Villa	5	3	1	1	+1	-2.2	10
10	Man City	4	3	0	1	+7	+4.7	9
11	Crystal Palace	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.9	9
12	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	+3.7	9
13	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.6	8
14	Everton	5	2	2	1	+0	+0.8	8
15	Burnley	5	2	1	2	+1	-6.7	7
16	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.4	7
17	Tottenham	5	1	1	3	+0	-3.5	4
18	Nott'm Forest	5	1	1	3	-5	+0.2	4
19	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-8	-5.1	3
20	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-8	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+9	-1.0	13
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.6	12
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+7	+3.3	10
4	Man City	5	2	1	2	+3	+2.0	7
5	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	+2	+1.3	7
6	Sunderland	5	2	1	2	-2	-2.4	7
7	Liverpool	5	2	0	3	-1	+2.0	6
8	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.5	5
9	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	-2	-3.0	5
10	Man United	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.4	5
11	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.7	4
12	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.2	4
13	Everton	4	1	0	3	-3	-2.3	3
14	Newcastle	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.0	3
15	Brentford	5	1	0	4	-5	+0.8	3
16	Burnley	5	1	0	4	-8	-7.0	3
17	Leeds	5	1	0	4	-9	-4.5	3
18	Nott'm Forest	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
19	Fulham	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.1	1
20	Wolves	5	0	1	4	-7	-2.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.