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Bundesliga

Referee: J Weinberger

Salzburg

T S U T S

4–1

Full-time

Ried

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Ried

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 46%

55%

36%

Points per game

1,9

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

91%

45%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

45%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,68 xG 0,91

60% Possession 40%

22 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Salzburg 1. · Ried 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	11	6	3	2	+10	+4.2	21
2	Sturm Graz	10	7	0	3	+9	+2.9	21
3	Wolfsberger AC	11	6	2	3	+8	+0.1	20
4	SK Rapid	11	6	2	3	+4	+0.8	20
5	Hartberg	12	4	4	4	+1	-0.3	16
6	Austria Vienna	12	5	1	6	-4	-0.1	16
7	LASK	12	5	1	6	-4	-4.3	16
8	Ried	11	4	2	5	-1	-2.4	14
9	Altach	12	3	5	4	-2	-0.5	14
10	Tirol	10	3	3	4	-1	+3.9	12
11	BW Linz	12	3	1	8	-8	-2.9	10
12	Grazer AK	12	1	6	5	-12	-1.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Salzburg	6	3	2	1	+7	+2.7	11
2	Tirol	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.9	10
3	LASK	6	3	1	2	+0	-2.9	10
4	Wolfsberger AC	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.1	9
5	Altach	6	2	3	1	+0	+0.9	9
6	SK Rapid	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.8	7
7	Grazer AK	7	1	4	2	-3	+1.4	7
8	BW Linz	6	2	0	4	-1	-2.1	6
9	Austria Vienna	6	2	0	4	-6	-0.2	6
10	Ried	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.5	5
11	Hartberg	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
12	Sturm Graz	4	1	0	3	-3	+0.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sturm Graz	6	6	0	0	+12	+2.9	18
2	SK Rapid	6	4	1	1	+4	-0.0	13
3	Hartberg	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.4	12
4	Wolfsberger AC	5	3	2	0	+6	+0.2	11
5	Salzburg	5	3	1	1	+3	+1.5	10
6	Austria Vienna	6	3	1	2	+2	+0.1	10
7	Ried	5	3	0	2	+3	-0.9	9
8	LASK	6	2	0	4	-4	-1.4	6
9	Altach	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.5	5
10	BW Linz	6	1	1	4	-7	-0.8	4
11	Tirol	4	0	2	2	-5	–	2
12	Grazer AK	5	0	2	3	-9	-2.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.