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Eredivisie

Referee: Serdar Gozubuyuk

Utrecht

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,2

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 42%

44%

40%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

67%

90%

Both score Ø 68%

56%

80%

Average goals

3,3

4,6

Scored

1,9

2,7

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,51 xG 2,14

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 12. · Nijmegen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	11	9	1	1	+20	+17.4	28
2	PSV Eindhoven	11	9	1	1	+19	+11.3	28
3	AZ Alkmaar	11	7	3	1	+11	+12.3	24
4	Ajax	11	5	5	1	+6	+2.6	20
5	Groningen	11	6	1	4	+2	+3.5	19
6	Sparta Rotterdam	11	5	1	5	-9	-5.4	16
7	Nijmegen	10	4	3	3	+8	+4.6	15
8	Twente	11	4	3	4	+2	+8.8	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	4	4	+0	-2.7	13
10	Heerenveen	10	3	4	3	+0	+8.5	13
11	For Sittard	11	4	1	6	-4	-6.6	13
12	Utrecht	9	4	0	5	+4	-2.1	12
13	NAC Breda	11	3	3	5	-5	-6.3	12
14	Volendam	11	2	4	5	-5	-10.1	10
15	Excelsior	11	3	1	7	-11	-8.3	10
16	Zwolle	11	2	3	6	-14	-10.4	9
17	Telstar	11	2	2	7	-7	-5.7	8
18	Heracles	11	2	0	9	-17	-11.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Feyenoord	6	5	0	1	+7	+10.5	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	6	4	1	1	+9	+7.7	13
3	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+5	+4.3	13
4	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	2	0	+7	+6.5	11
5	Nijmegen	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.1	10
6	Groningen	6	3	1	2	+4	+3.0	10
7	For Sittard	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.0	10
8	NAC Breda	6	3	1	2	+1	+2.4	10
9	Utrecht	4	3	0	1	+8	+3.6	9
10	Heerenveen	6	2	3	1	+1	+6.8	9
11	Volendam	5	2	2	1	+3	-0.5	8
12	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.7	8
13	Twente	5	2	1	2	-1	+5.8	7
14	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	1	3	-7	-3.8	7
15	Excelsior	5	2	0	3	-1	-4.2	6
16	Heracles	5	2	0	3	-2	-3.5	6
17	Telstar	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5
18	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-7	-2.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+10	+3.6	15
2	Feyenoord	5	4	1	0	+13	+6.9	13
3	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+4	+5.9	13
4	Groningen	5	3	0	2	-2	+0.5	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	5	3	0	2	-2	-1.5	9
6	Twente	6	2	2	2	+3	+2.9	8
7	Ajax	5	1	4	0	+1	-1.7	7
8	Nijmegen	5	1	2	2	+1	-0.5	5
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	1	2	3	-2	-4.4	5
10	Zwolle	6	1	2	3	-7	-7.5	5
11	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.7	4
12	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-10	-4.1	4
13	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
14	Telstar	5	1	0	4	-4	-5.7	3
15	For Sittard	6	1	0	5	-6	-7.5	3
16	NAC Breda	5	0	2	3	-6	-8.7	2
17	Volendam	6	0	2	4	-8	-9.6	2
18	Heracles	6	0	0	6	-15	-7.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.