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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

AZ Alkmaar

U S S S U

4–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 32/33 matches

Win Ø 40%

44%

36%

Points per game

1,6

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

59%

52%

Both score Ø 54%

56%

52%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

3,16 xG 0,57

43% Possession 57%

26 Shots 15

19 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 6. · Heerenveen 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	34	25	4	5	+64	+49.4	79
2	Ajax	34	24	6	4	+35	+32.7	78
3	Feyenoord	34	20	8	6	+38	+26.3	68
4	Utrecht	34	18	10	6	+17	+5.5	64
5	Twente	32	14	9	9	+12	+12.1	51
6	AZ Alkmaar	32	14	9	9	+12	+15.7	51
7	Go Ahead Eagles	34	14	9	11	+2	+8.9	51
8	Nijmegen	33	12	7	14	+7	+1.7	43
9	Heerenveen	33	12	7	14	-7	-1.0	43
10	Zwolle	34	10	11	13	-8	-18.8	41
11	For Sittard	34	11	8	15	-17	-8.2	41
12	Sparta Rotterdam	34	9	12	13	-4	-3.8	39
13	Groningen	34	10	9	15	-13	-9.1	39
14	Heracles	34	9	11	14	-21	-17.6	38
15	NAC Breda	34	8	9	17	-24	-17.4	33
16	Willem II	35	6	8	21	-23	-31.6	26
17	Waalwijk	34	6	7	21	-30	-27.2	25
18	Almere City	34	4	10	20	-41	-17.6	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	13	3	1	+40	+30.1	42
2	Ajax	17	13	3	1	+24	+24.4	42
3	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+20	+17.1	36
4	Heerenveen	17	10	6	1	+15	+9.8	36
5	Go Ahead Eagles	17	10	4	3	+10	+13.4	34
6	Twente	16	9	4	3	+13	+12.4	31
7	Groningen	17	8	6	3	+13	+6.5	30
8	Utrecht	17	9	3	5	+4	+8.2	30
9	Zwolle	17	7	4	6	+4	-2.5	25
10	Heracles	17	6	7	4	+2	+3.3	25
11	For Sittard	17	8	1	8	-7	+2.4	25
12	Nijmegen	17	6	6	5	+12	+9.8	24
13	NAC Breda	17	6	6	5	-1	+1.0	24
14	AZ Alkmaar	15	6	4	5	+4	+14.3	22
15	Sparta Rotterdam	17	4	6	7	-4	+2.5	18
16	Waalwijk	17	5	3	9	-6	-7.9	18
17	Willem II	17	3	3	11	-7	-12.2	12
18	Almere City	17	2	5	10	-23	-0.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	12	1	4	+24	+19.3	37
2	Ajax	17	11	3	3	+11	+8.3	36
3	Utrecht	17	9	7	1	+13	-2.7	34
4	Feyenoord	17	9	5	3	+18	+9.2	32
5	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	5	4	+8	+1.4	29
6	Sparta Rotterdam	17	5	6	6	+0	-6.3	21
7	Twente	16	5	5	6	-1	-0.2	20
8	Nijmegen	16	6	1	9	-5	-8.1	19
9	Go Ahead Eagles	17	4	5	8	-8	-4.6	17
10	For Sittard	17	3	7	7	-10	-10.6	16
11	Zwolle	17	3	7	7	-12	-16.3	16
12	Willem II	18	3	5	10	-16	-19.4	14
13	Heracles	17	3	4	10	-23	-20.9	13
14	Almere City	17	2	5	10	-18	-17.1	11
15	NAC Breda	17	2	3	12	-23	-18.4	9
16	Groningen	17	2	3	12	-26	-15.6	9
17	Heerenveen	16	2	1	13	-22	-10.7	7
18	Waalwijk	17	1	4	12	-24	-19.4	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.