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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Nijmegen

U T S S S

2–2

Full-time

Heerenveen

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,8

Scored

2,2

2,5

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 47%

52%

42%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 77%

81%

73%

Both score Ø 75%

81%

69%

Average goals

4,1

3,3

Scored

2,5

1,7

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,22 xG 1,38

54% Possession 46%

22 Shots 11

10 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 3. · Heerenveen 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	27	22	2	3	+43	+27.5	68
2	Feyenoord	27	16	4	7	+21	+24.7	52
3	Nijmegen	27	14	7	6	+22	+7.9	49
4	Twente	28	12	11	5	+17	+25.5	47
5	Ajax	26	11	11	4	+16	+8.8	44
6	AZ Alkmaar	27	12	6	9	+5	+17.2	42
7	Sparta Rotterdam	28	12	5	11	-12	-4.1	41
8	Heerenveen	26	11	6	9	+3	+8.6	39
9	Utrecht	26	10	7	9	+9	+2.6	37
10	Groningen	26	10	5	11	+2	+9.6	35
11	For Sittard	28	10	5	13	-9	-13.3	35
12	Zwolle	28	8	9	11	-15	-17.1	33
13	Go Ahead Eagles	27	7	11	9	+2	-15.1	32
14	Volendam	28	7	6	15	-18	-23.5	27
15	Excelsior	28	7	6	15	-18	-15.9	27
16	Telstar	27	5	9	13	-10	-11.3	24
17	NAC Breda	28	5	8	15	-21	-8.6	23
18	Heracles	28	5	4	19	-37	-23.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	10	2	2	+22	+15.3	32
2	Feyenoord	14	10	1	3	+14	+17.4	31
3	Ajax	13	8	3	2	+15	+13.8	27
4	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+15	+8.8	26
5	Twente	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.9	25
6	Zwolle	14	7	3	4	+1	-0.4	24
7	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	5	2	+8	+11.6	23
8	Heerenveen	14	6	5	3	+5	+9.5	23
9	Volendam	14	6	4	4	+4	-3.6	22
10	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	4	4	-3	+1.2	22
11	Go Ahead Eagles	14	5	6	3	+8	+2.3	21
12	For Sittard	14	6	3	5	-1	-0.9	21
13	Utrecht	12	6	2	4	+9	+5.4	20
14	Groningen	13	5	3	5	+6	+5.9	18
15	NAC Breda	14	4	4	6	-3	+2.6	16
16	Heracles	14	4	3	7	-7	-5.6	15
17	Excelsior	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14
18	Telstar	13	2	5	6	-3	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	0	1	+21	+12.2	36
2	Nijmegen	14	6	5	3	+7	-0.9	23
3	Twente	14	5	7	2	+9	+10.6	22
4	Feyenoord	13	6	3	4	+7	+7.3	21
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	1	7	-3	+5.6	19
6	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	1	7	-9	-5.4	19
7	Ajax	13	3	8	2	+1	-5.0	17
8	Utrecht	14	4	5	5	+0	-2.8	17
9	Groningen	13	5	2	6	-4	+3.7	17
10	Heerenveen	12	5	1	6	-2	-0.9	16
11	For Sittard	14	4	2	8	-8	-12.4	14
12	Telstar	14	3	4	7	-7	-10.4	13
13	Excelsior	14	3	4	7	-13	-11.7	13
14	Go Ahead Eagles	13	2	5	6	-6	-17.4	11
15	Zwolle	14	1	6	7	-16	-16.7	9
16	NAC Breda	14	1	4	9	-18	-11.3	7
17	Volendam	14	1	2	11	-22	-19.9	5
18	Heracles	14	1	1	12	-30	-17.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.