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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Excelsior

U S T T T

1–2

Full-time

Heerenveen

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,5

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,2

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 33%

28%

38%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

60%

71%

Both score Ø 66%

60%

71%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,56 xG 1,69

51% Possession 49%

21 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

11 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · Heerenveen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	22	2	2	+44	+28.1	68
2	Feyenoord	25	15	3	7	+20	+21.5	48
3	Nijmegen	25	12	7	6	+18	+6.3	43
4	Twente	25	10	11	4	+15	+24.5	41
5	Ajax	25	10	11	4	+12	+6.0	41
6	AZ Alkmaar	26	11	6	9	+1	+14.6	39
7	Sparta Rotterdam	25	11	4	10	-10	-2.7	37
8	Utrecht	25	9	7	9	+7	+2.7	34
9	Groningen	25	10	4	11	+2	+9.8	34
10	Heerenveen	24	9	6	9	-1	+9.7	33
11	For Sittard	25	9	5	11	-6	-12.8	32
12	Go Ahead Eagles	25	6	11	8	-1	-15.2	29
13	Zwolle	25	7	7	11	-16	-16.7	28
14	Volendam	25	7	6	12	-12	-21.6	27
15	Excelsior	25	7	5	13	-16	-13.8	26
16	NAC Breda	25	5	7	13	-14	-7.8	22
17	Telstar	25	4	9	12	-10	-11.3	21
18	Heracles	26	5	3	18	-33	-21.2	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.9	32
2	Feyenoord	13	9	1	3	+13	+14.9	28
3	Twente	13	7	4	2	+10	+14.8	25
4	Ajax	12	7	3	2	+11	+11.0	24
5	Nijmegen	12	7	2	3	+12	+7.8	23
6	Volendam	13	6	4	3	+5	-3.7	22
7	For Sittard	12	6	3	3	+3	-0.4	21
8	Utrecht	12	6	2	4	+9	+5.4	20
9	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	5	2	+4	+9.0	20
10	Heerenveen	13	5	5	3	+2	+9.7	20
11	Zwolle	12	6	2	4	+0	-0.4	20
12	Groningen	13	5	3	5	+6	+5.9	18
13	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	6	2	+5	+2.2	18
14	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	3	4	-5	-0.2	18
15	NAC Breda	13	4	3	6	-3	+3.2	15
16	Excelsior	13	4	2	7	-4	-5.1	14
17	Heracles	13	4	2	7	-7	-6.1	14
18	Telstar	13	2	5	6	-3	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	0	1	+21	+12.2	36
2	Feyenoord	12	6	2	4	+7	+6.7	20
3	Nijmegen	13	5	5	3	+6	-1.4	20
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	1	7	-3	+5.6	19
5	Sparta Rotterdam	13	6	1	6	-5	-2.5	19
6	Ajax	13	3	8	2	+1	-5.0	17
7	Twente	12	3	7	2	+5	+9.7	16
8	Groningen	12	5	1	6	-4	+3.9	16
9	Utrecht	13	3	5	5	-2	-2.7	14
10	Heerenveen	11	4	1	6	-3	-0.0	13
11	Excelsior	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.7	12
12	Go Ahead Eagles	13	2	5	6	-6	-17.4	11
13	For Sittard	13	3	2	8	-9	-12.3	11
14	Telstar	12	2	4	6	-7	-10.4	10
15	Zwolle	13	1	5	7	-16	-16.3	8
16	NAC Breda	12	1	4	7	-11	-11.1	7
17	Volendam	12	1	2	9	-17	-17.9	5
18	Heracles	13	1	1	11	-26	-15.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.