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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Heerenveen

T T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Nijmegen

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

71%

86%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

3,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,4

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,12 xG 1,03

49% Possession 51%

18 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 13. · Nijmegen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+21	+16.1	21
2	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	+17	+8.1	19
3	Twente	7	6	0	1	+10	+4.9	18
4	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	+20	+16.2	17
5	Excelsior	7	3	3	1	+3	-1.5	12
6	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	2	2	+1	-0.6	11
7	Heracles	7	3	2	2	-1	-3.9	11
8	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	1	3	-2	-7.9	10
9	For Sittard	7	2	3	2	-4	+0.5	9
10	Nijmegen	7	2	1	4	-2	-6.1	7
11	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-5	+1.5	7
12	Vitesse	7	2	0	5	-5	-3.8	6
13	Heerenveen	7	2	0	5	-8	-6.2	6
14	Waalwijk	6	2	0	4	-8	+1.0	6
15	Ajax	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.1	5
16	Volendam	7	1	1	5	-9	-3.6	4
17	Almere City	7	1	1	5	-12	-5.4	4
18	Utrecht	8	1	0	7	-13	-8.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+11	+11.9	12
2	Twente	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.6	12
3	Feyenoord	4	3	1	0	+12	+9.0	10
4	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+10	+7.0	10
5	Go Ahead Eagles	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.2	9
6	Heracles	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.3	9
7	For Sittard	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
8	Nijmegen	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.6	6
9	Excelsior	4	1	3	0	+1	-1.2	6
10	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.4	5
11	Volendam	4	1	1	2	-2	+1.1	4
12	Zwolle	4	1	1	2	-3	+2.4	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.3	3
14	Heerenveen	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.8	3
15	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-5	-0.5	3
16	Vitesse	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.9	0
17	Almere City	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.2	0
18	Utrecht	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+10	+4.2	9
2	AZ Alkmaar	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
3	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+8	+7.2	7
4	Twente	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.3	6
5	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.3	6
6	Vitesse	4	2	0	2	+1	-0.9	6
7	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.0	6
8	Almere City	4	1	1	2	-4	-1.3	4
9	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.9	3
10	Waalwijk	3	1	0	2	-3	+1.4	3
11	Heerenveen	4	1	0	3	-5	-5.3	3
12	Utrecht	5	1	0	4	-5	-3.6	3
13	Ajax	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.4	2
14	Heracles	3	0	2	1	-3	-5.2	2
15	For Sittard	4	0	2	2	-7	-3.4	2
16	Nijmegen	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.8	1
17	Go Ahead Eagles	4	0	1	3	-9	-10.1	1
18	Volendam	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.