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Eredivisie

Referee: J Manschot

Ajax

S T U U S

1–1

Full-time

Nijmegen

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 22/23 matches

Win Ø 49%

45%

52%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

64%

83%

Both score Ø 80%

77%

83%

Average goals

3,4

4,2

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,4

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,48 xG 1,16

48% Possession 52%

9 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

2 Offside 5

7 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 4. · Nijmegen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	24	20	2	2	+41	+25.3	62
2	Feyenoord	23	14	3	6	+21	+21.0	45
3	Nijmegen	23	12	6	5	+19	+7.7	42
4	Ajax	22	10	9	3	+14	+6.6	39
5	Sparta Rotterdam	23	11	4	8	-7	-1.8	37
6	AZ Alkmaar	23	10	6	7	+2	+15.3	36
7	Twente	23	8	11	4	+12	+24.3	35
8	Groningen	22	9	4	9	+2	+7.8	31
9	Heerenveen	23	8	6	9	-2	+9.2	30
10	Utrecht	22	8	5	9	+5	-0.9	29
11	For Sittard	24	8	5	11	-7	-13.8	29
12	Excelsior	24	7	5	12	-15	-15.3	26
13	Zwolle	23	7	5	11	-16	-16.3	26
14	Volendam	24	6	6	12	-13	-19.8	24
15	Go Ahead Eagles	23	4	11	8	-6	-15.6	23
16	NAC Breda	24	5	7	12	-11	-6.9	22
17	Telstar	23	3	9	11	-12	-11.4	18
18	Heracles	23	5	2	16	-27	-15.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	2	1	+22	+15.1	29
2	Feyenoord	12	8	1	3	+12	+14.1	25
3	Nijmegen	11	7	2	2	+13	+8.8	23
4	Ajax	11	7	2	2	+11	+10.7	23
5	For Sittard	12	6	3	3	+3	-0.4	21
6	Twente	11	5	4	2	+7	+14.6	19
7	Volendam	12	5	4	3	+4	-1.9	19
8	Zwolle	11	6	1	4	+0	-1.2	19
9	Sparta Rotterdam	12	5	3	4	-5	-0.2	18
10	AZ Alkmaar	11	4	5	2	+2	+8.5	17
11	Heerenveen	12	4	5	3	+1	+9.3	17
12	Utrecht	10	5	1	4	+7	+3.7	16
13	Groningen	12	4	3	5	+4	+5.8	15
14	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
15	NAC Breda	13	4	3	6	-3	+3.2	15
16	Excelsior	12	4	2	6	-3	-6.6	14
17	Heracles	11	4	1	6	-5	-2.2	13
18	Telstar	12	1	5	6	-6	-1.8	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	0	1	+19	+10.2	33
2	Feyenoord	11	6	2	3	+9	+7.0	20
3	Nijmegen	12	5	4	3	+6	-1.1	19
4	AZ Alkmaar	12	6	1	5	+0	+6.8	19
5	Sparta Rotterdam	11	6	1	4	-2	-1.6	19
6	Twente	12	3	7	2	+5	+9.7	16
7	Ajax	11	3	7	1	+3	-4.1	16
8	Groningen	10	5	1	4	-2	+2.0	16
9	Utrecht	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.6	13
10	Heerenveen	11	4	1	6	-3	-0.0	13
11	Excelsior	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.7	12
12	Telstar	11	2	4	5	-6	-9.6	10
13	Go Ahead Eagles	12	1	5	6	-7	-16.0	8
14	For Sittard	12	2	2	8	-10	-13.3	8
15	NAC Breda	11	1	4	6	-8	-10.2	7
16	Zwolle	12	1	4	7	-16	-15.0	7
17	Volendam	12	1	2	9	-17	-17.9	5
18	Heracles	12	1	1	10	-22	-13.4	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.