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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Sp Lisbon

U S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,8

Scored

2,8

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/6 matches

Win Ø 60%

86%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

71%

17%

Both score Ø 38%

43%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

2,7

0,8

Conceded

0,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

67% Possession 33%

13 Shots 2

5 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 1. · Moreirense 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+15	19
2	Porto	8	5	1	2	+9	16
3	Benfica	7	5	0	2	+8	15
4	Sp Braga	7	5	0	2	+5	15
5	Guimaraes	8	4	1	3	-1	13
6	Pacos Ferreira	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Nacional	7	2	4	1	+1	10
8	Rio Ave	7	2	4	1	+0	10
9	Santa Clara	8	3	1	4	-1	10
10	Famalicao	8	2	3	3	-5	9
11	Moreirense	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Belenenses	7	1	4	2	-2	7
14	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Boavista	7	1	3	3	-5	6
16	Farense	7	1	2	4	-3	5
17	Gil Vicente	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Portimonense	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+4	9
3	Pacos Ferreira	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+6	7
5	Moreirense	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Tondela	5	2	1	2	-3	7
7	Nacional	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	-3	5
10	Farense	4	1	1	2	+0	4
11	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Maritimo	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Belenenses	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Boavista	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Guimaraes	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
5	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Rio Ave	4	1	3	0	+1	6
7	Santa Clara	4	2	0	2	-1	6
8	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Belenenses	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Famalicao	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Boavista	4	0	3	1	-2	3
12	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Portimonense	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Farense	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Gil Vicente	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Moreirense	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.