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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Pacos Ferreira

T T T T T

2–3

Full-time

Casa Pia

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pacos Ferreira Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

2,5

0,8

Scored

0,3

0,6

Conceded

2,2

0,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,4

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

60%

Both score Ø 10%

20%

Average goals

2,6

0,8

Scored

0,4

0,6

Conceded

2,2

0,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

19 Shots 12

8 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 4

8 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Pacos Ferreira 17. · Casa Pia 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+11	15
3	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+15	13
4	Portimonense	6	4	0	2	+1	12
5	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+4	10
6	Guimaraes	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Boavista	5	3	0	2	-2	9
8	Casa Pia	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Chaves	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Estoril	5	2	1	2	+2	7
11	Arouca	5	2	1	2	-8	7
12	Vizela	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Gil Vicente	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Santa Clara	6	1	1	4	-3	4
16	Famalicao	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	0	5	-9	0
18	Maritimo	5	0	0	5	-12	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+6	7
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	0	1	+5	6
5	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Boavista	3	2	0	1	-1	6
8	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Famalicao	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-5	3
15	Chaves	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Maritimo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+9	6
3	Porto	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Chaves	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Vizela	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-3	4
10	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Boavista	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	2
14	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Famalicao	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Santa Clara	3	0	0	3	-3	0
18	Maritimo	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.