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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Casa Pia

T T U U T

2–1

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

T S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 28%

41%

14%

Points per game

1,5

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

36%

50%

Both score Ø 39%

32%

45%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 7. · Pacos Ferreira 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	23	20	2	1	+45	62
2	Porto	23	17	3	3	+37	54
3	Sp Braga	23	17	1	5	+28	52
4	Sp Lisbon	23	15	2	6	+23	47
5	Guimaraes	23	12	4	7	+2	40
6	Arouca	23	9	7	7	-5	34
7	Casa Pia	22	9	5	8	-4	32
8	Boavista	23	8	6	9	-8	30
9	Vizela	23	8	5	10	+3	29
10	Gil Vicente	23	8	5	10	-4	29
11	Rio Ave	23	7	6	10	-6	27
12	Famalicao	23	8	3	12	-9	27
13	Chaves	23	6	8	9	-9	26
14	Portimonense	23	8	2	13	-11	26
15	Estoril	23	6	4	13	-15	22
16	Maritimo	23	4	4	15	-25	16
17	Santa Clara	23	3	6	14	-18	15
18	Pacos Ferreira	22	3	3	16	-24	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	1	0	+28	34
2	Porto	11	9	0	2	+25	27
3	Sp Lisbon	11	9	0	2	+22	27
4	Guimaraes	12	8	2	2	+6	26
5	Sp Braga	11	8	1	2	+17	25
6	Arouca	12	7	1	4	+3	22
7	Boavista	12	5	5	2	+0	20
8	Rio Ave	11	6	1	4	+4	19
9	Famalicao	11	6	1	4	+3	19
10	Portimonense	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Gil Vicente	12	4	4	4	+0	16
12	Casa Pia	11	4	3	4	+0	15
13	Vizela	11	4	2	5	+3	14
14	Chaves	11	2	5	4	-3	11
15	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-3	11
16	Estoril	11	3	2	6	-9	11
17	Santa Clara	12	2	4	6	-10	10
18	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+17	28
2	Porto	12	8	3	1	+12	27
3	Sp Braga	12	9	0	3	+11	27
4	Sp Lisbon	12	6	2	4	+1	20
5	Casa Pia	11	5	2	4	-4	17
6	Vizela	12	4	3	5	+0	15
7	Chaves	12	4	3	5	-6	15
8	Guimaraes	11	4	2	5	-4	14
9	Gil Vicente	11	4	1	6	-4	13
10	Arouca	11	2	6	3	-8	12
11	Estoril	12	3	2	7	-6	11
12	Boavista	11	3	1	7	-8	10
13	Portimonense	11	3	0	8	-10	9
14	Rio Ave	12	1	5	6	-10	8
15	Famalicao	12	2	2	8	-12	8
16	Pacos Ferreira	10	2	1	7	-9	7
17	Santa Clara	11	1	2	8	-8	5
18	Maritimo	12	1	2	9	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.