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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Casa Pia

U T U T S

1–2

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,2

2,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

5,0

Scored

3,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,84 xG 0,92

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 2. · Sp Lisbon 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	+5	+0.6	3
2	Casa Pia	1	1	0	+3	+1.5	3
3	Rio Ave	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	3
4	Arouca	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
5	Boavista	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	3
7	Famalicao	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	3
8	Porto	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	3
9	Guimaraes	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	3
10	Estoril	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
11	Benfica	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
12	Vizela	1	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
13	Sp Braga	1	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
14	Moreirense	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
15	Estrela	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Chaves	1	0	1	-2	-3.0	0
17	Farense	1	0	1	-3	-1.5	0
18	Portimonense	1	0	1	-5	-0.6	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	+5	+0.6	3
2	Rio Ave	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	3
3	Arouca	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
4	Boavista	1	1	0	+1	-0.1	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	3
6	Sp Braga	1	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
7	Moreirense	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
8	Estrela	1	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
9	Farense	1	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Casa Pia	1	1	0	+3	+1.5	3
2	Famalicao	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	3
4	Guimaraes	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	3
5	Estoril	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
6	Benfica	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
7	Vizela	1	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
8	Chaves	1	0	1	-2	-3.0	0
9	Portimonense	1	0	1	-5	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.