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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Sp Lisbon

S T S T T

3–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

56%

Points per game

1,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

78%

22%

Both score Ø 33%

44%

22%

Average goals

3,3

1,6

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

25 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 5. · Casa Pia 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	1	0	+19	28
2	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+16	22
3	Porto	10	7	1	2	+15	22
4	Casa Pia	9	5	2	2	+4	17
5	Sp Lisbon	9	5	1	3	+6	16
6	Boavista	9	5	1	3	-4	16
7	Estoril	10	4	3	3	+2	15
8	Portimonense	9	5	0	4	-1	15
9	Guimaraes	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Chaves	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	Arouca	9	3	3	3	-6	12
12	Vizela	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	Famalicao	10	3	1	6	-5	10
14	Rio Ave	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Gil Vicente	9	2	3	4	-4	9
16	Santa Clara	9	1	2	6	-5	5
17	Pacos Ferreira	10	0	2	8	-12	2
18	Maritimo	9	0	1	8	-19	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+13	15
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+12	12
3	Sp Braga	5	3	1	1	+7	10
4	Boavista	5	3	1	1	+0	10
5	Sp Lisbon	4	3	0	1	+7	9
6	Famalicao	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Portimonense	5	3	0	2	+0	9
8	Casa Pia	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Arouca	5	2	1	2	-3	7
11	Rio Ave	4	2	0	2	+1	6
12	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Estoril	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Gil Vicente	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Chaves	4	0	3	1	-1	3
17	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-8	1
18	Maritimo	4	0	0	4	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Sp Braga	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Estoril	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Porto	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Casa Pia	4	3	1	0	+3	10
6	Chaves	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Vizela	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Portimonense	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Boavista	4	2	0	2	-4	6
12	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-3	5
13	Gil Vicente	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Rio Ave	5	0	3	2	-5	3
15	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-4	1
16	Famalicao	5	0	1	4	-7	1
17	Maritimo	5	0	1	4	-15	1
18	Santa Clara	4	0	0	4	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.