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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Sp Lisbon

U S S S S

2–2

Full-time

Benfica

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

2,0

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 77%

69%

84%

Points per game

2,2

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

69%

59%

Both score Ø 38%

44%

31%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,1

2,4

Conceded

0,9

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

52% Possession 48%

13 Shots 19

7 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Benfica 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	27	2	3	+59	83
2	Porto	33	26	4	3	+48	82
3	Sp Braga	33	24	3	6	+42	75
4	Sp Lisbon	32	22	4	6	+38	70
5	Guimaraes	33	16	5	12	-2	53
6	Arouca	33	14	9	10	-3	51
7	Chaves	33	12	10	11	-2	46
8	Famalicao	33	13	4	16	-8	43
9	Casa Pia	33	11	8	14	-8	41
10	Boavista	33	11	8	14	-14	41
11	Vizela	33	11	7	15	-3	40
12	Rio Ave	33	10	9	14	-7	39
13	Gil Vicente	33	9	7	17	-10	34
14	Portimonense	33	10	4	19	-21	34
15	Estoril	33	9	5	19	-18	32
16	Maritimo	33	7	5	21	-29	26
17	Pacos Ferreira	33	6	5	22	-33	23
18	Santa Clara	33	5	7	21	-29	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+33	43
2	Porto	16	14	0	2	+30	42
3	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+30	40
4	Sp Braga	16	12	2	2	+26	38
5	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+6	33
6	Arouca	17	10	2	5	+5	32
7	Boavista	17	8	6	3	+2	30
8	Famalicao	17	9	1	7	+2	28
9	Rio Ave	16	8	2	6	+4	26
10	Chaves	16	6	5	5	+2	23
11	Casa Pia	17	6	5	6	+1	23
12	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+0	21
13	Maritimo	17	6	3	8	-2	21
14	Portimonense	16	6	3	7	-5	21
15	Estoril	16	6	2	8	-6	20
16	Vizela	16	5	4	7	+0	19
17	Santa Clara	17	4	5	8	-11	17
18	Pacos Ferreira	17	3	2	12	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+26	40
2	Porto	17	12	4	1	+18	40
3	Sp Braga	17	12	1	4	+16	37
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+8	30
5	Chaves	17	6	5	6	-4	23
6	Vizela	17	6	3	8	-3	21
7	Guimaraes	16	6	2	8	-8	20
8	Arouca	16	4	7	5	-8	19
9	Casa Pia	16	5	3	8	-9	18
10	Famalicao	16	4	3	9	-10	15
11	Gil Vicente	17	4	1	12	-10	13
12	Rio Ave	17	2	7	8	-11	13
13	Portimonense	17	4	1	12	-16	13
14	Estoril	17	3	3	11	-12	12
15	Pacos Ferreira	16	3	3	10	-13	12
16	Boavista	16	3	2	11	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	2	13	-18	5
18	Maritimo	16	1	2	13	-27	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.