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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Porto

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 56%

77%

35%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

48%

35%

Both score Ø 42%

45%

39%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

2,1

0,9

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

73% Possession 27%

19 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 10

13 Corners 3

0 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 2. · Casa Pia 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	32	27	2	3	+59	83
2	Porto	31	24	4	3	+45	76
3	Sp Braga	32	24	2	6	+42	74
4	Sp Lisbon	32	22	4	6	+38	70
5	Guimaraes	32	15	5	12	-3	50
6	Arouca	31	13	9	9	-2	48
7	Chaves	32	12	10	10	-1	46
8	Famalicao	32	13	4	15	-6	43
9	Vizela	32	11	7	14	-2	40
10	Casa Pia	31	11	7	13	-7	40
11	Boavista	32	11	7	14	-14	40
12	Rio Ave	32	10	9	13	-5	39
13	Gil Vicente	32	9	7	16	-9	34
14	Portimonense	32	10	4	18	-20	34
15	Estoril	31	8	4	19	-20	28
16	Maritimo	32	6	5	21	-30	23
17	Pacos Ferreira	32	5	5	22	-35	20
18	Santa Clara	32	4	7	21	-30	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	1	1	+33	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+30	40
3	Porto	15	13	0	2	+29	39
4	Sp Braga	16	12	2	2	+26	38
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+5	30
6	Arouca	16	9	2	5	+4	29
7	Boavista	16	8	5	3	+2	29
8	Famalicao	16	9	1	6	+4	28
9	Rio Ave	16	8	2	6	+4	26
10	Chaves	16	6	5	5	+2	23
11	Casa Pia	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+0	21
13	Portimonense	16	6	3	7	-5	21
14	Vizela	16	5	4	7	+0	19
15	Maritimo	16	5	3	8	-3	18
16	Estoril	15	5	2	8	-8	17
17	Santa Clara	16	3	5	8	-12	14
18	Pacos Ferreira	16	2	2	12	-22	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	1	2	+26	40
2	Porto	16	11	4	1	+16	37
3	Sp Braga	16	12	0	4	+16	36
4	Sp Lisbon	16	9	3	4	+8	30
5	Chaves	16	6	5	5	-3	23
6	Vizela	16	6	3	7	-2	21
7	Guimaraes	16	6	2	8	-8	20
8	Arouca	15	4	7	4	-6	19
9	Casa Pia	15	5	3	7	-8	18
10	Famalicao	16	4	3	9	-10	15
11	Gil Vicente	16	4	1	11	-9	13
12	Rio Ave	16	2	7	7	-9	13
13	Portimonense	16	4	1	11	-15	13
14	Pacos Ferreira	16	3	3	10	-13	12
15	Estoril	16	3	2	11	-12	11
16	Boavista	16	3	2	11	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	2	13	-18	5
18	Maritimo	16	1	2	13	-27	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.