Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Boavista
Guimaraes
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | xG +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sp Lisbon
|
25 | 18 | 5 | 2 | +45 | +37.5 | 59 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
24 | 18 | 2 | 4 | +38 | +33.4 | 56 |
| 3 |
Porto
|
25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | +29 | +23.8 | 50 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | +19 | +14.2 | 50 |
| 5 |
Santa Clara
|
25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | +1 | +7.9 | 40 |
| 6 |
Casa Pia
|
25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | -1 | -7.5 | 36 |
| 7 |
Guimaraes
|
24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | +6 | +9.2 | 35 |
| 8 |
Estoril
|
25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -7 | -16.1 | 35 |
| 9 |
Famalicao
|
24 | 7 | 10 | 7 | +1 | -5.5 | 31 |
| 10 |
Rio Ave
|
24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -12 | -14.3 | 29 |
| 11 |
Moreirense
|
25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -7 | -1.2 | 28 |
| 12 |
Arouca
|
25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | -14 | -7.5 | 28 |
| 13 |
Nacional
|
25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -12 | -6.8 | 26 |
| 14 |
Gil Vicente
|
24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -12 | -9.0 | 23 |
| 15 |
Estrela
|
25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | -15 | -12.5 | 23 |
| 16 |
AVS
|
25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | -15 | -12.4 | 23 |
| 17 |
Farense
|
25 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -19 | -17.9 | 17 |
| 18 |
Boavista
|
24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -25 | -15.1 | 15 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
I. Camará
M
Coach: Lito Vidigal
Miguel Maga
D
T. Borevković
D
Filipe Relvas
D
João Teixeira Mendes
D
Samu
M
Telmo Arcanjo
M
Coach: Luís Freire
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Boavista
Santa Clara
Benfica
Boavista
Boavista
Estrela
Estoril
Boavista
Boavista
Famalicao
João Pedro Pinheiro · 221 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.