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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Estoril

T T S T U

4–0

Full-time

Estrela

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,2

1,3

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 27%

33%

21%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

70%

30%

Both score Ø 46%

58%

33%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

2,59 xG 0,62

50% Possession 50%

10 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 4

0 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 9. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	33	24	7	2	+59	+47.8	79
2	Benfica	33	25	4	4	+56	+47.8	79
3	Porto	33	21	5	7	+32	+22.9	68
4	Sp Braga	33	19	8	6	+25	+16.4	65
5	Guimaraes	33	14	12	7	+12	+12.2	54
6	Santa Clara	33	16	6	11	+3	+11.1	54
7	Famalicao	34	12	11	11	+5	-4.9	47
8	Casa Pia	34	12	9	13	-5	-13.9	45
9	Estoril	33	11	10	12	-9	-15.9	43
10	Rio Ave	34	9	11	14	-16	-17.4	38
11	Moreirense	33	9	10	14	-11	-5.9	37
12	Arouca	33	8	11	14	-17	-6.6	35
13	Gil Vicente	34	8	10	16	-13	-8.6	34
14	Nacional	33	9	7	17	-15	-8.8	34
15	Estrela	33	7	8	18	-22	-16.0	29
16	Farense	33	6	9	18	-20	-19.0	27
17	AVS	33	5	12	16	-32	-20.8	27
18	Boavista	33	6	6	21	-32	-20.2	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	2	1	+40	+31.2	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+25	+21.7	41
3	Porto	16	12	3	1	+25	+22.6	39
4	Guimaraes	17	9	5	3	+10	+9.0	32
5	Santa Clara	17	10	2	5	+4	+12.5	32
6	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+14	+15.4	31
7	Famalicao	17	7	7	3	+8	+8.7	28
8	Casa Pia	17	8	4	5	+3	-1.5	28
9	Rio Ave	17	6	8	3	+1	-2.5	26
10	Moreirense	17	6	8	3	+1	-2.0	26
11	Nacional	17	7	3	7	-4	-2.3	24
12	Estoril	16	6	4	6	-4	-6.2	22
13	Gil Vicente	17	5	5	7	-1	+0.3	20
14	Estrela	17	5	4	8	-6	-5.2	19
15	Arouca	16	4	6	6	-6	-3.0	18
16	AVS	16	3	6	7	-10	-9.8	15
17	Farense	16	3	2	11	-13	-3.2	11
18	Boavista	17	1	3	13	-23	-7.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	17	11	5	1	+34	+26.1	38
2	Benfica	16	11	2	3	+16	+16.6	35
3	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+11	+1.0	34
4	Porto	17	9	2	6	+7	+0.2	29
5	Guimaraes	16	5	7	4	+2	+3.3	22
6	Santa Clara	16	6	4	6	-1	-1.4	22
7	Estoril	17	5	6	6	-5	-9.7	21
8	Famalicao	17	5	4	8	-3	-13.6	19
9	Boavista	16	5	3	8	-9	-13.2	18
10	Casa Pia	17	4	5	8	-8	-12.4	17
11	Arouca	17	4	5	8	-11	-3.6	17
12	Farense	17	3	7	7	-7	-15.8	16
13	Gil Vicente	17	3	5	9	-12	-8.9	14
14	Rio Ave	17	3	3	11	-17	-14.9	12
15	AVS	17	2	6	9	-22	-11.0	12
16	Moreirense	16	3	2	11	-12	-3.9	11
17	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-11	-6.5	10
18	Estrela	16	2	4	10	-16	-10.8	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.