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Primeira Liga

Referee: David Silva

Estrela

T T S T T

2–0

Full-time

Porto

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Porto

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 42%

20%

63%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 39%

37%

40%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,9

Conceded

1,4

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,43 xG 0,50

32% Possession 68%

11 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 11

1 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 14

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 15. · Porto 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	30	22	6	2	+53	+45.3	72
2	Benfica	30	23	3	4	+49	+43.3	72
3	Sp Braga	31	19	7	5	+26	+15.1	64
4	Porto	30	19	5	6	+31	+23.7	62
5	Santa Clara	31	15	5	11	+2	+9.6	50
6	Guimaraes	30	12	12	6	+9	+10.1	48
7	Famalicao	31	11	11	9	+6	-5.3	44
8	Casa Pia	30	11	8	11	-3	-9.3	41
9	Estoril	30	10	9	11	-10	-15.4	39
10	Moreirense	30	9	8	13	-9	-4.1	35
11	Rio Ave	30	8	9	13	-15	-17.4	33
12	Arouca	31	8	9	14	-17	-6.9	33
13	Gil Vicente	31	8	8	15	-12	-9.0	32
14	Nacional	30	9	5	16	-14	-9.3	32
15	Estrela	30	6	8	16	-21	-15.6	26
16	AVS	30	4	12	14	-26	-18.7	24
17	Farense	31	4	9	18	-22	-19.4	21
18	Boavista	30	5	6	19	-27	-16.7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+34	+27.1	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+24	+21.8	38
3	Porto	15	11	3	1	+23	+21.1	36
4	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+14	+14.9	30
5	Guimaraes	15	8	5	2	+8	+7.0	29
6	Santa Clara	16	9	2	5	+3	+10.6	29
7	Famalicao	16	6	7	3	+7	+5.5	25
8	Casa Pia	15	7	4	4	+4	-0.9	25
9	Moreirense	15	6	6	3	+1	-1.7	24
10	Nacional	15	7	2	6	-3	-2.7	23
11	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	-1	-4.5	22
12	Estoril	15	6	4	5	-3	-5.8	22
13	Gil Vicente	16	5	4	7	-1	-0.2	19
14	Arouca	15	4	5	6	-6	-3.8	17
15	Estrela	15	4	4	7	-7	-6.6	16
16	AVS	15	3	6	6	-9	-10.2	15
17	Farense	15	2	2	11	-14	-4.1	8
18	Boavista	15	1	3	11	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	10	4	1	+29	+23.5	34
2	Sp Braga	16	10	4	2	+12	+0.2	34
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+15	+16.2	32
4	Porto	15	8	2	5	+8	+2.7	26
5	Santa Clara	15	6	3	6	-1	-0.9	21
6	Guimaraes	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.1	19
7	Famalicao	15	5	4	6	-1	-10.8	19
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.7	17
9	Casa Pia	15	4	4	7	-7	-8.4	16
10	Arouca	16	4	4	8	-11	-3.1	16
11	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-10	-12.8	15
12	Farense	16	2	7	7	-8	-15.3	13
13	Gil Vicente	15	3	4	8	-11	-8.8	13
14	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-10	-2.4	11
15	Rio Ave	15	3	2	10	-14	-12.9	11
16	Estrela	15	2	4	9	-14	-9.0	10
17	Nacional	15	2	3	10	-11	-6.6	9
18	AVS	15	1	6	8	-17	-8.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.