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Primeira Liga

Referee: José Bessa

Estoril

T T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Estrela

T U U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

2,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 24%

26%

21%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

68%

42%

Both score Ø 61%

63%

58%

Average goals

3,6

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,64 xG 1,02

60% Possession 40%

10 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 6

15 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 14. · Estrela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	19	16	1	2	+34	+25.2	49
2	Benfica	19	15	3	1	+29	+24.9	48
3	Porto	20	14	3	3	+20	+13.2	45
4	Guimaraes	20	12	3	5	+12	+5.6	39
5	Sp Braga	19	11	4	4	+16	+13.7	37
6	Moreirense	19	9	5	5	+2	-0.1	32
7	Arouca	20	7	4	9	+5	-0.8	25
8	Farense	20	7	4	9	+0	-5.4	25
9	Gil Vicente	19	6	4	9	-1	-6.2	22
10	Famalicao	19	5	7	7	-5	-5.1	22
11	Portimonense	20	6	3	11	-18	-11.9	21
12	Boavista	19	5	5	9	-10	-9.8	20
13	Casa Pia	19	5	4	10	-15	-8.2	19
14	Estoril	19	5	3	11	-2	-8.7	18
15	Rio Ave	20	3	9	8	-9	+0.7	18
16	Estrela	19	4	6	9	-12	-7.7	18
17	Chaves	20	3	5	12	-26	-12.2	14
18	Vizela	20	2	7	11	-20	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	10	0	0	+25	+16.6	30
2	Guimaraes	10	8	0	2	+13	+8.2	24
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.4	23
4	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.2	23
5	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+10	-2.8	19
6	Sp Braga	9	4	3	2	+9	+14.3	15
7	Farense	10	4	2	4	+3	+0.5	14
8	Moreirense	9	4	2	3	+1	+0.7	14
9	Estoril	9	4	1	4	+9	+1.3	13
10	Rio Ave	10	3	4	3	+0	+4.0	13
11	Famalicao	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
12	Arouca	10	3	2	5	+1	-0.6	11
13	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	-4.5	11
14	Boavista	10	2	4	4	-7	-2.5	10
15	Estrela	10	3	1	6	-7	-5.0	10
16	Chaves	10	2	3	5	-7	-1.8	9
17	Vizela	11	1	3	7	-12	-2.2	6
18	Casa Pia	9	1	2	6	-8	-2.6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.5	25
2	Porto	10	7	1	2	+8	+0.0	22
3	Sp Braga	10	7	1	2	+7	-0.7	22
4	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
5	Moreirense	10	5	3	2	+1	-0.8	18
6	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	-1	-2.5	15
7	Arouca	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.2	14
8	Casa Pia	10	4	2	4	-7	-5.6	14
9	Farense	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.9	11
10	Boavista	9	3	1	5	-3	-7.3	10
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	-3	-4.0	10
12	Portimonense	10	3	1	6	-12	-7.5	10
13	Estrela	9	1	5	3	-5	-2.7	8
14	Vizela	9	1	4	4	-8	-4.9	7
15	Rio Ave	10	0	5	5	-9	-3.3	5
16	Estoril	10	1	2	7	-11	-10.1	5
17	Chaves	10	1	2	7	-19	-10.4	5
18	Gil Vicente	9	1	0	8	-11	-3.5	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.