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Primeira Liga

Referee: A Rodrigues

Sp Braga

U U T S S

5–0

Full-time

Alverca

T T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Alverca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 42%

44%

39%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

61%

56%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,8

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–0

3,27 xG 0,38

68% Possession 32%

17 Shots 3

7 Shots on target 0

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 0

9 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 5. · Alverca 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	18	17	1	0	+33	+23.9	52
2	Sp Lisbon	19	15	3	1	+42	+30.4	48
3	Benfica	19	13	6	0	+31	+22.9	45
4	Gil Vicente	18	8	7	3	+11	+4.7	31
5	Sp Braga	18	8	6	4	+14	+13.5	30
6	Moreirense	19	9	3	7	+0	-6.0	30
7	Famalicao	19	8	5	6	+10	+7.4	29
8	Estoril	19	7	5	7	+6	-2.7	26
9	Guimaraes	19	7	4	8	-7	-4.6	25
10	Alverca	18	7	2	9	-9	-0.3	23
11	Nacional	19	5	5	9	-2	-6.4	20
12	Rio Ave	19	4	8	7	-13	-15.4	20
13	Estrela	19	4	7	8	-13	-9.5	19
14	Santa Clara	19	4	5	10	-7	+2.0	17
15	Arouca	19	4	5	10	-24	-18.4	17
16	Casa Pia	19	3	6	10	-18	-18.5	15
17	Tondela	19	3	3	13	-21	-7.0	12
18	AVS	19	0	5	14	-33	-16.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+27	+18.7	22
2	Benfica	10	6	4	0	+16	+14.9	22
3	Porto	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
4	Moreirense	9	6	1	2	+3	-1.7	19
5	Estoril	10	5	3	2	+7	-0.4	18
6	Gil Vicente	9	5	2	2	+5	+3.0	17
7	Alverca	10	5	1	4	-5	+4.1	16
8	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	+0	-2.8	15
9	Famalicao	10	4	2	4	+8	+4.1	14
10	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.0	14
11	Santa Clara	10	3	2	5	-1	+3.7	11
12	Nacional	9	3	1	5	-1	-3.5	10
13	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	+0.4	10
14	Rio Ave	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.6	9
15	Arouca	10	2	3	5	-10	-7.9	9
16	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-7	-3.3	5
17	Casa Pia	9	0	5	4	-8	-9.7	5
18	AVS	10	0	3	7	-12	-7.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	+19	+11.7	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+15	+11.7	26
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+15	+8.0	23
4	Sp Braga	10	4	4	2	+7	+6.5	16
5	Famalicao	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.3	15
6	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	+6	+1.7	14
7	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-3	-4.2	11
8	Rio Ave	10	2	5	3	-8	-9.8	11
9	Nacional	10	2	4	4	-1	-2.9	10
10	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-7	-1.8	10
11	Casa Pia	10	3	1	6	-10	-8.8	10
12	Estrela	9	2	3	4	-9	-9.9	9
13	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-1	-2.3	8
14	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-14	-10.5	8
15	Alverca	8	2	1	5	-4	-4.5	7
16	Tondela	10	2	1	7	-14	-3.7	7
17	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.7	6
18	AVS	9	0	2	7	-21	-9.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.