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Ligue 1
Referee: H Ben El Hadj Salem
Nantes
T S S U T
1–4
Full-time
Nice
S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Nice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 23%
17%
28%
Points per game
0,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
44%
56%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,6
3,1
Scored
0,9
1,2
Conceded
1,7
1,9
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

1,59 xG 1,12
56% Possession 44%
20 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
4 Corners 2
0 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nantes 16. · Nice 15. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 19 14 3 2 +26 +18.6 45
2 Lens 19 14 1 4 +17 +10.5 43
3 Marseille 19 12 2 5 +24 +12.0 38
4 Lyon 18 10 3 5 +9 +8.4 33
5 Lille 18 10 2 6 +8 +6.4 32
6 Rennes 19 8 7 4 +3 +1.7 31
7 Strasbourg 18 8 3 7 +6 +5.2 27
8 Toulouse 18 7 5 6 +6 +2.2 26
9 Lorient 19 6 7 6 -5 +1.4 25
10 Monaco 19 7 3 9 -5 +3.0 24
11 Brest 18 6 4 8 -5 +0.0 22
12 Angers 18 6 4 8 -5 -13.8 22
13 Le Havre 19 4 8 7 -8 -4.2 20
14 Paris FC 18 5 4 9 -8 -6.0 19
15 Nice 18 5 3 10 -14 -10.3 18
16 Nantes 18 3 5 10 -13 -13.2 14
17 Auxerre 19 3 3 13 -15 -7.5 12
18 Metz 18 3 3 12 -21 -14.5 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

11. Jan -26 Nantes – Nice 1–1 13. Sep -25 Nice – Nantes 1–0 4. Apr -25 Nice – Nantes 1–2 20. Oct -24 Nantes – Nice 1–1 31. Mar -24 Nice – Nantes 1–2

Match report

Nantes Nice
Johann Lepenant 🟨
9′
16′
⚽ M. Cho 0–1
J. Clauss
17′
🟨 Ali Abdi
29′
⚽ M. Cho 0–2
M. Sanson
Matthis Abline 🟨
38′
40′
⚽ S. Diop 0–3
1–3 Mostafa Mohamed ⚽
C. Awaziem
45′
Half-time 1–3
52′
🟨 Charles Vanhoutte
70′
🔁 T. Louchet
↦ E. Wahi
70′
🔁 T. Gouveia
↦ S. Diop
B. Deuff 🔁
↦ I. Sissoko
81′
81′
🔁 Dante
↦ C. Vanhoutte
86′
🟨 Morgan Sanson
Bahmed Deuff 🟨
87′
Y. El Arabi 🔁
↦ M. Abline
87′
89′
🔁 G. Bernardeau
↦ M. Cho
89′
🔁 T. Ndombele
↦ M. Sanson
90′
⚽ T. Louchet 1–4
T. Ndombele
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Nantes

4-3-3
1 A. Lopes G
98 K. Amian D
6 C. Awaziem D
78 T. Tati D
3 N. Cozza D
20 R. Cabella M
28 I. Sissoko M
80 J. Mwanga M
8 J. Lepenant F
31 Mostafa Mohamed F
10 M. Abline F
Bench (9)
30 P. Carlgren
22 M. Acapandie
26 U. Radakovic
2 Ali Youssef
52 B. Deuff
19 Y. El Arabi
11 B. Guirassy
49 J. Kone
37 I. Ganago

Coach: Vahid Halilhodzic

Nice

4-2-3-1
31 M. Dupe G
92 J. Clauss D
28 J. Bah D
37 K. Peprah D
2 A. Abdi D
24 C. Vanhoutte M
99 S. Abdul Samed M
25 M. Cho M
8 M. Sanson M
10 S. Diop M
11 E. Wahi F
Bench (9)
80 Y. Diouf
4 Dante
33 A. Mendy
23 G. Bernardeau
20 T. Louchet
22 T. Ndombele
47 T. Gouveia
32 K. Boudache
90 Kevin

Coach: Claude Puel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,88
🔒
U
3,40
🔒
B ✓
2,34
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,75
🔒
U2,5
2,00
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.