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Serie A

Referee: J L Sacchi

Atalanta

S S S U T

4–0

Full-time

Parma

U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 31%

38%

24%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

29%

Both score Ø 45%

52%

38%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4,18 xG 1,65

48% Possession 52%

21 Shots 15

9 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 9

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 7. · Parma 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	22	17	1	4	+31	+26.8	52
2	Milan	21	13	7	1	+18	+12.1	46
3	Napoli	21	13	4	4	+14	+8.7	43
4	Roma	21	14	0	7	+14	+3.9	42
5	Como	22	11	7	4	+21	+11.7	40
6	Juventus	21	11	6	4	+15	+18.7	39
7	Atalanta	21	8	8	5	+6	+9.7	32
8	Bologna	21	8	6	7	+6	-0.2	30
9	Lazio	22	7	8	7	+2	-6.6	29
10	Sassuolo	22	7	5	10	-4	-9.2	26
11	Udinese	21	7	5	9	-11	-5.6	26
12	Cagliari	22	6	7	9	-7	-13.0	25
13	Parma	21	5	8	8	-8	-8.1	23
14	Cremonese	22	5	8	9	-9	-12.9	23
15	Torino	22	6	5	11	-19	-8.4	23
16	Genoa	21	4	8	9	-7	+0.0	20
17	Lecce	22	4	6	12	-16	-14.6	18
18	Fiorentina	22	3	8	11	-10	+2.9	17
19	Verona	21	2	8	11	-17	-4.2	14
20	Pisa	22	1	11	10	-19	-11.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	1	2	+23	+18.7	28
2	Napoli	10	7	3	0	+9	+1.9	24
3	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
4	Como	11	6	4	1	+13	+7.7	22
5	Juventus	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.3	22
6	Roma	10	7	0	3	+8	+4.4	21
7	Atalanta	11	5	4	2	+5	+9.6	19
8	Lazio	11	4	4	3	+3	-0.2	16
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.6	14
10	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	-2	-5.3	14
11	Udinese	11	3	4	4	-5	+0.5	13
12	Cagliari	10	3	3	4	-2	-5.8	12
13	Cremonese	10	2	5	3	-2	-1.4	11
14	Torino	11	3	2	6	-9	-5.8	11
15	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	+0.6	10
16	Parma	11	2	4	5	-6	-5.8	10
17	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-8	-2.3	10
18	Fiorentina	11	2	3	6	-2	+5.3	9
19	Pisa	11	1	4	6	-9	-2.4	7
20	Verona	10	1	3	6	-6	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	0	2	+8	+8.1	24
2	Milan	10	6	4	0	+10	+1.8	22
3	Roma	11	7	0	4	+6	-0.5	21
4	Napoli	11	6	1	4	+5	+6.8	19
5	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
6	Juventus	11	5	2	4	+3	+6.4	17
7	Bologna	11	4	4	3	+4	-3.8	16
8	Atalanta	10	3	4	3	+1	+0.1	13
9	Lazio	11	3	4	4	-1	-6.4	13
10	Parma	10	3	4	3	-2	-2.3	13
11	Cagliari	12	3	4	5	-5	-7.2	13
12	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.2	13
13	Sassuolo	11	3	3	5	-2	-3.8	12
14	Cremonese	12	3	3	6	-7	-11.5	12
15	Torino	11	3	3	5	-10	-2.6	12
16	Genoa	10	2	4	4	-3	-0.5	10
17	Fiorentina	11	1	5	5	-8	-2.3	8
18	Lecce	10	2	2	6	-8	-12.4	8
19	Verona	11	1	5	5	-11	-3.8	8
20	Pisa	11	0	7	4	-10	-9.3	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.