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Primeira Liga

Referee: I Vasilica

Nacional

S U T U T

4–0

Full-time

Rio Ave

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 22%

22%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

61%

Both score Ø 64%

67%

61%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,53 xG 0,47

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 6

18 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Rio Ave 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	18	17	1	0	+33	+23.9	52
2	Sp Lisbon	19	15	3	1	+42	+30.4	48
3	Benfica	18	12	6	0	+27	+20.8	42
4	Gil Vicente	18	8	7	3	+11	+4.7	31
5	Sp Braga	18	8	6	4	+14	+13.5	30
6	Moreirense	19	9	3	7	+0	-6.0	30
7	Famalicao	18	7	5	6	+7	+6.8	26
8	Estoril	19	7	5	7	+6	-2.7	26
9	Guimaraes	19	7	4	8	-7	-4.6	25
10	Alverca	18	7	2	9	-9	-0.3	23
11	Rio Ave	18	4	8	6	-9	-14.3	20
12	Estrela	18	4	7	7	-9	-7.4	19
13	Nacional	18	4	5	9	-6	-7.5	17
14	Santa Clara	19	4	5	10	-7	+2.0	17
15	Arouca	19	4	5	10	-24	-18.4	17
16	Casa Pia	19	3	6	10	-18	-18.5	15
17	Tondela	18	3	3	12	-18	-6.4	12
18	AVS	19	0	5	14	-33	-16.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	9	7	1	1	+27	+18.7	22
2	Porto	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
3	Benfica	9	5	4	0	+12	+12.8	19
4	Moreirense	9	6	1	2	+3	-1.7	19
5	Estoril	10	5	3	2	+7	-0.4	18
6	Gil Vicente	9	5	2	2	+5	+3.0	17
7	Alverca	10	5	1	4	-5	+4.1	16
8	Guimaraes	10	4	3	3	+0	-2.8	15
9	Sp Braga	8	4	2	2	+7	+7.0	14
10	Famalicao	9	3	2	4	+5	+3.5	11
11	Santa Clara	10	3	2	5	-1	+3.7	11
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	+0.4	10
13	Rio Ave	9	2	3	4	-5	-5.6	9
14	Arouca	10	2	3	5	-10	-7.9	9
15	Nacional	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.6	7
16	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-7	-3.3	5
17	Casa Pia	9	0	5	4	-8	-9.7	5
18	AVS	10	0	3	7	-12	-7.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	10	0	0	+19	+11.7	30
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+15	+11.7	26
3	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+15	+8.0	23
4	Sp Braga	10	4	4	2	+7	+6.5	16
5	Famalicao	9	4	3	2	+2	+3.3	15
6	Gil Vicente	9	3	5	1	+6	+1.7	14
7	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-3	-4.2	11
8	Rio Ave	9	2	5	2	-4	-8.7	11
9	Nacional	10	2	4	4	-1	-2.9	10
10	Guimaraes	9	3	1	5	-7	-1.8	10
11	Casa Pia	10	3	1	6	-10	-8.8	10
12	Estrela	8	2	3	3	-5	-7.8	9
13	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-1	-2.3	8
14	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-14	-10.5	8
15	Alverca	8	2	1	5	-4	-4.5	7
16	Tondela	9	2	1	6	-11	-3.1	7
17	Santa Clara	9	1	3	5	-6	-1.7	6
18	AVS	9	0	2	7	-21	-9.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.