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Pro League

Referee: W Smet

Charleroi

U S U S T

4–1

Full-time

Dender

S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Charleroi Dender

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Pro League · 24/25 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

32%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

38%

60%

Both score Ø 55%

46%

64%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,68 xG 1,22

54% Possession 46%

24 Shots 8

7 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

9 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Charleroi 8. · Dender 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	25	17	5	3	+34	+33.1	56
2	Genk	25	17	4	4	+21	+17.8	55
3	St. Gilloise	25	16	6	3	+29	+25.8	54
4	Anderlecht	25	13	6	6	+25	+7.9	45
5	Antwerp	24	10	10	4	+15	-1.6	40
6	Gent	25	9	8	8	-2	-10.0	35
7	Dender	25	8	9	8	-6	-12.4	33
8	Charleroi	24	8	8	8	+2	+3.8	32
9	Standard	26	7	9	10	-14	-10.4	30
10	Cercle Brugge	27	7	9	11	-17	-3.3	30
11	Westerlo	26	7	8	11	-2	+1.7	29
12	Mechelen	26	6	8	12	-6	+0.9	26
13	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	26	4	14	8	-6	-5.0	26
14	St Truiden	27	6	7	14	-22	-7.6	25
15	Kortrijk	28	7	3	18	-25	-15.5	24
16	Beerschot VA	28	3	8	17	-26	-25.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Genk	12	10	1	1	+18	+14.7	31
2	St. Gilloise	12	10	0	2	+19	+19.3	30
3	Club Brugge	13	9	2	2	+20	+20.3	29
4	Anderlecht	13	7	4	2	+18	+6.0	25
5	Antwerp	12	6	3	3	+14	+4.5	21
6	Charleroi	12	6	3	3	+7	+5.0	21
7	Gent	12	6	2	4	+6	-2.9	20
8	Cercle Brugge	13	5	5	3	-2	+3.7	20
9	Standard	13	5	4	4	+0	-2.8	19
10	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	13	3	9	1	+4	+2.9	18
11	St Truiden	14	4	6	4	-3	+0.8	18
12	Westerlo	13	4	5	4	+6	+12.1	17
13	Mechelen	13	4	5	4	+6	+6.1	17
14	Dender	13	4	5	4	+1	-3.6	17
15	Kortrijk	14	5	1	8	-6	-2.1	16
16	Beerschot VA	14	3	6	5	-4	-10.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Club Brugge	12	8	3	1	+14	+12.8	27
2	St. Gilloise	13	6	6	1	+10	+6.5	24
3	Genk	13	7	3	3	+3	+3.1	24
4	Anderlecht	12	6	2	4	+7	+2.0	20
5	Antwerp	12	4	7	1	+1	-6.1	19
6	Dender	12	4	4	4	-7	-8.8	16
7	Gent	13	3	6	4	-8	-7.1	15
8	Westerlo	13	3	3	7	-8	-10.4	12
9	Charleroi	12	2	5	5	-5	-1.2	11
10	Standard	13	2	5	6	-14	-7.6	11
11	Cercle Brugge	14	2	4	8	-15	-7.0	10
12	Mechelen	13	2	3	8	-12	-5.2	9
13	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	13	1	5	7	-10	-7.9	8
14	Kortrijk	14	2	2	10	-19	-13.3	8
15	St Truiden	13	2	1	10	-19	-8.4	7
16	Beerschot VA	14	0	2	12	-22	-15.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.