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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Excelsior

S T S S T

4–1

Full-time

NAC Breda

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior NAC Breda

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

5,0

3,8

Scored

2,5

3,0

Conceded

2,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 37/5 matches

Win Ø 51%

22%

80%

Points per game

0,9

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 81%

81%

80%

Both score Ø 64%

68%

60%

Average goals

3,8

4,4

Scored

1,6

3,6

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	34	29	4	1	+90	+69.8	91
2	Feyenoord	34	26	6	2	+66	+68.4	84
3	Twente	34	21	6	7	+33	+20.5	69
4	AZ Alkmaar	34	19	8	7	+31	+14.9	65
5	Ajax	34	15	11	8	+13	+11.7	56
6	Nijmegen	34	14	10	10	+16	-12.8	52
7	Go Ahead Eagles	34	14	9	11	+4	-5.2	51
8	Utrecht	34	13	11	10	+3	-2.4	50
9	Sparta Rotterdam	34	13	7	14	+0	-8.1	46
10	For Sittard	34	9	11	14	-19	+2.2	38
11	Heerenveen	34	10	7	17	-17	-6.2	37
12	Zwolle	34	9	9	16	-22	-19.7	36
13	Excelsior	37	8	11	18	-20	-13.8	35
14	Almere City	34	7	13	14	-26	-18.6	34
15	Heracles	34	9	6	19	-33	-26.1	33
16	Waalwijk	34	7	8	19	-18	-14.4	29
17	Vitesse	34	6	6	22	-44	-25.3	24
18	Volendam	34	4	7	23	-54	-34.8	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	16	1	0	+43	+39.4	49
2	Twente	17	14	1	2	+23	+17.2	43
3	Feyenoord	17	13	3	1	+41	+40.0	42
4	AZ Alkmaar	17	11	3	3	+23	+14.7	36
5	Ajax	17	9	6	2	+18	+12.5	33
6	Utrecht	17	8	5	4	+7	+2.2	29
7	Nijmegen	17	8	3	6	+9	+0.4	27
8	For Sittard	17	7	6	4	+7	+13.5	27
9	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	4	6	+8	+4.0	25
10	Sparta Rotterdam	17	6	5	6	+0	+2.2	23
11	Excelsior	18	5	7	6	+5	+4.7	22
12	Heracles	17	6	4	7	-10	-7.5	22
13	Heerenveen	17	6	3	8	-6	+3.7	21
14	Waalwijk	17	4	6	7	-5	-1.1	18
15	Zwolle	17	5	3	9	-12	+1.4	18
16	Almere City	17	3	7	7	-12	-7.1	16
17	Vitesse	17	2	6	9	-15	-7.9	12
18	Volendam	17	3	2	12	-28	-10.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	13	3	1	+47	+30.4	42
2	Feyenoord	17	13	3	1	+25	+28.4	42
3	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	5	4	+8	+0.2	29
4	Twente	17	7	5	5	+10	+3.3	26
5	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	5	5	-4	-9.2	26
6	Nijmegen	17	6	7	4	+7	-13.2	25
7	Sparta Rotterdam	17	7	2	8	+0	-10.3	23
8	Ajax	17	6	5	6	-5	-0.8	23
9	Utrecht	17	5	6	6	-4	-4.6	21
10	Zwolle	17	4	6	7	-10	-21.1	18
11	Almere City	17	4	6	7	-14	-11.5	18
12	Heerenveen	17	4	4	9	-11	-9.9	16
13	Excelsior	19	3	4	12	-25	-18.5	13
14	Vitesse	17	4	0	13	-29	-17.4	12
15	Waalwijk	17	3	2	12	-13	-13.3	11
16	Heracles	17	3	2	12	-23	-18.7	11
17	For Sittard	17	2	5	10	-26	-11.3	11
18	Volendam	17	1	5	11	-26	-24.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.