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Eredivisie

Referee: D Higler

Excelsior

T T S U T

4–0

Full-time

Heracles

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 22%

16%

28%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

78%

72%

Both score Ø 61%

69%

53%

Average goals

3,6

3,5

Scored

1,4

1,3

Conceded

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,35 xG 0,41

60% Possession 40%

19 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 0

6 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

5 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Heracles 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	32	28	3	1	+88	+66.0	87
2	Feyenoord	32	24	6	2	+61	+63.8	78
3	Twente	32	19	6	7	+27	+18.1	63
4	AZ Alkmaar	32	18	7	7	+28	+15.6	61
5	Ajax	32	14	10	8	+10	+9.5	52
6	Nijmegen	31	13	10	8	+15	-12.9	49
7	Utrecht	31	12	10	9	+2	-4.5	46
8	Sparta Rotterdam	32	12	7	13	+1	-8.2	43
9	Go Ahead Eagles	30	11	9	10	+4	-5.3	42
10	Heerenveen	32	10	7	15	-14	-5.9	37
11	For Sittard	32	9	9	14	-19	+2.5	36
12	Zwolle	32	9	8	15	-21	-16.7	35
13	Almere City	32	7	13	12	-20	-15.6	34
14	Heracles	32	9	5	18	-29	-23.2	32
15	Waalwijk	32	7	7	18	-16	-12.5	28
16	Excelsior	32	5	11	16	-23	-14.2	26
17	Vitesse	32	5	5	22	-46	-24.2	20
18	Volendam	32	4	7	21	-48	-32.5	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	15	1	0	+41	+35.9	46
2	Twente	16	13	1	2	+18	+16.2	40
3	Feyenoord	16	12	3	1	+37	+37.4	39
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	11	2	3	+23	+16.8	35
5	Ajax	16	8	6	2	+15	+11.6	30
6	Nijmegen	15	8	3	4	+11	+2.4	27
7	For Sittard	16	7	5	4	+7	+13.8	26
8	Utrecht	15	7	5	3	+6	+2.2	26
9	Go Ahead Eagles	16	7	4	5	+11	+5.4	25
10	Heerenveen	16	6	3	7	-4	+3.9	21
11	Heracles	16	6	3	7	-10	-7.4	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	16	5	5	6	-1	+2.1	20
13	Zwolle	16	5	3	8	-11	+2.9	18
14	Waalwijk	16	4	5	7	-5	-2.6	17
15	Excelsior	16	3	7	6	-5	+1.7	16
16	Almere City	16	3	7	6	-9	-5.0	16
17	Vitesse	16	2	5	9	-15	-6.7	11
18	Volendam	16	3	2	11	-27	-9.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	13	2	1	+47	+30.1	41
2	Feyenoord	16	12	3	1	+24	+26.4	39
3	AZ Alkmaar	16	7	5	4	+5	-1.2	26
4	Twente	16	6	5	5	+9	+1.8	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	16	7	2	7	+2	-10.3	23
6	Nijmegen	16	5	7	4	+4	-15.3	22
7	Ajax	16	6	4	6	-5	-2.1	22
8	Utrecht	16	5	5	6	-4	-6.7	20
9	Almere City	16	4	6	6	-11	-10.6	18
10	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	5	5	-7	-10.7	17
11	Zwolle	16	4	5	7	-10	-19.6	17
12	Heerenveen	16	4	4	8	-10	-9.8	16
13	Waalwijk	16	3	2	11	-11	-9.8	11
14	Heracles	16	3	2	11	-19	-15.7	11
15	Excelsior	16	2	4	10	-18	-15.9	10
16	For Sittard	16	2	4	10	-26	-11.3	10
17	Vitesse	16	3	0	13	-31	-17.6	9
18	Volendam	16	1	5	10	-21	-23.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.