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Champions League
Referee: Jesús Gil
Milan
S U S U S
3–1
Full-time
Dinamo Zagreb
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Dinamo Zagreb
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
2,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,5
2,0
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,2
This season — Champions League · 1/7 matches
Win Ø 36%
0%
71%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 29%
0%
57%
Both score Ø 79%
100%
57%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%
17 Shots 7
7 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 1
4 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 9
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Milan Dinamo Zagreb
1–0 O. Giroud ⚽
45′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 A. Saelemaekers ⚽
Rafael Leão
47′
56′
⚽ M. Oršić 2–1
B. Petković
63′
🔁 D. Špikić
↦ S. Moharrami
T. Pobega 🔁
↦ S. Tonali
67′
C. De Ketelaere 🔁
↦ O. Giroud
68′
75′
🟨 Mislav Oršić
3–1 T. Pobega ⚽
T. Hernández
77′
R. Krunić 🔁
↦ I. Bennacer
78′
S. Dest 🔁
↦ Brahim Díaz
78′
Junior Messias 🔁
↦ A. Saelemaekers
78′
78′
🔁 J. Drmić
↦ S. Ristovski
84′
🔁 M. Baturina
↦ B. Petković
84′
🔁 A. Marin
↦ M. Oršić
90′
🟨 Antonio Marin
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
20 P. Kalulu D
23 F. Tomori M
19 T. Hernández D
4 I. Bennacer M
8 S. Tonali D
56 A. Saelemaekers M
10 Brahim Díaz M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (10)
32 T. Pobega
90 C. De Ketelaere
33 R. Krunić
21 S. Dest
30 Junior Messias
83 A. Mirante
24 S. Kjær
46 M. Gabbia
5 F. Ballo
96 A. Jungdal

Coach: S. Pioli

Dinamo Zagreb

5-3-2
40 D. Livaković G
2 S. Moharrami D
13 S. Ristovski D
37 J. Šutalo D
55 D. Perić D
14 R. Ljubičić D
5 A. Ademi M
27 J. Mišić M
7 L. Ivanušec M
9 B. Petković F
99 M. Oršić F
Bench (12)
77 D. Špikić
18 J. Drmić
10 M. Baturina
20 A. Marin
12 P. Bočkaj
28 K. Théophile-Catherine
11 M. Emreli
1 D. Zagorac
3 D. Štefulj
31 M. Bulat
6 R. Lauritsen
66 E. Dilaver

Coach: A. Čačić

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jesús Gil · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.