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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Sampdoria

T U T U T

1–2

Full-time

Milan

U S U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sampdoria Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

60%

Points per game

0,4

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,4

2,0

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,4

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sampdoria 18. · Milan 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	6	4	2	0	+9	14
2	Atalanta	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Inter	6	4	0	2	+4	12
4	Milan	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Udinese	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Roma	5	3	1	1	+1	10
7	Torino	6	3	1	2	+0	10
8	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+5	9
9	Lazio	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Salernitana	5	1	3	1	+3	6
11	Fiorentina	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Sassuolo	5	1	3	1	-2	6
13	Verona	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Spezia	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Empoli	5	0	4	1	-1	4
16	Bologna	5	0	3	2	-3	3
17	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Sampdoria	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Cremonese	5	0	1	4	-5	1
20	Monza	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Milan	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Udinese	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Roma	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Lazio	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Spezia	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Salernitana	3	1	1	1	+3	4
11	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+2	4
12	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Verona	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Empoli	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Sampdoria	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Cremonese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Monza	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Torino	4	2	0	2	-1	6
4	Roma	3	1	1	1	-3	4
5	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
6	Inter	3	1	0	2	-2	3
7	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Juventus	2	0	2	0	+0	2
9	Salernitana	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Lazio	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Milan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Empoli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Sassuolo	3	0	2	1	-3	2
14	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Cremonese	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Sampdoria	2	0	0	2	-5	0
19	Spezia	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Monza	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.