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Champions League
Referee: D Orsato
Porto
S S T S U
2–1
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,5
Scored
2,7
1,3
Conceded
0,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+2,3
+0,2
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
60%
20%
Points per game
1,8
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
80%
40%
Both score Ø 30%
20%
40%
Average goals
3,2
2,2
Scored
2,0
0,8
Conceded
1,2
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

51% Possession 49%
16 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 2
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 5
0 Offside 5
10 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

7. Sep -22 Ath Madrid – Porto 2–1

Match report

Porto Ath Madrid
1–0 M. Taremi ⚽
Evanilson
5′
2–0 S. Eustáquio ⚽
Galeno
24′
Marko Grujić 🟨
39′
42′
🟨 Reinildo Isnard Mandava
Half-time 2–0
48′
🟨 Stefan Savić
Wendell 🔁
↦ Z. Sanusi
53′
60′
🔁 Y. Carrasco
↦ Saúl
61′
🔁 Matheus Cunha
↦ João Félix
68′
🟨 Rodrigo de Paul
Fábio Cardoso 🟨
69′
Toni Martínez 🔁
↦ Evanilson
81′
85′
🔁 Pablo Barrios
↦ Á. Correa
Rodrigo Conceição 🔁
↦ Pepê Aquino
89′
Bernardo Folha 🔁
↦ Galeno
89′
Gonçalo Borges 🔁
↦ Otávio
89′
95′
⚽ Iván Marcano 3–0
own goal
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Porto

4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa G
11 Pepê Aquino D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
5 Iván Marcano D
12 Z. Sanusi D
25 Otávio M
16 M. Grujić M
46 S. Eustáquio M
30 Evanilson F
9 M. Taremi F
13 Galeno F
Bench (11)
22 Wendell
29 Toni Martínez
17 Rodrigo Conceição
87 Bernardo Folha
70 Gonçalo Borges
20 André Franco
94 Samuel
14 Cláudio Ramos
19 D. Namaso
28 Bruno Costa
23 João Mário

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Ath Madrid

3-4-3
13 J. Oblak G
15 S. Savić D
2 J. Giménez D
23 Reinildo D
16 N. Molina M
5 R. De Paul M
20 A. Witsel M
17 Saúl M
10 Á. Correa F
8 A. Griezmann F
7 João Félix F
Bench (11)
21 Y. Carrasco
9 Matheus Cunha
34 Pablo Barrios
51 Sergio Mestre
18 Felipe
19 Álvaro Morata
1 I. Grbić
3 Reguilón
4 G. Kondogbia
22 Hermoso
30 Sergio Díez

Coach: D. Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Orsato · 98 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.