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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Newcastle
S U S S S
4–1
Full-time
Paris SG
S T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,2
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
17%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,3
Scored
2,2
2,5
Conceded
0,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
1,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,0
2,0
Scored
0,0
2,0
Conceded
0,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,94 xG 0,93
27% Possession 73%
12 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
1 Corners 8
0 Offside 2
16 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Newcastle Paris SG
1–0 M. Almirón ⚽
17′
38′
🟨 Lucas Hernández
2–0 D. Burn ⚽
Bruno Guimarães
39′
Dan Burn ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
41′
43′
🟨 Achraf Hakimi
Half-time 3–0
3–0 S. Longstaff ⚽
K. Trippier
50′
Bruno Guimarães 🟨
52′
56′
⚽ L. Hernández 3–1
W. Zaïre-Emery
57′
🔁 B. Barcola
↦ R. Kolo Muani
64′
🔁 Vitinha
↦ M. Ugarte
E. Anderson 🔁
↦ S. Tonali
65′
67′
🟨 Ousmane Dembélé
Anthony Gordon 🟨
70′
J. Murphy 🔁
↦ M. Almirón
71′
81′
🟨 Warren Zaïre-Emery
Nick Pope 🟨
87′
4–1 F. Schär ⚽
J. Murphy
91′
M. Targett 🔁
↦ A. Gordon
93′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
22 N. Pope G
2 K. Trippier D
6 J. Lascelles D
5 F. Schär D
33 D. Burn D
36 S. Longstaff M
39 Bruno Guimarães M
8 S. Tonali M
24 M. Almirón F
14 A. Isak F
10 A. Gordon F
Bench (9)
32 E. Anderson
23 J. Murphy
13 M. Targett
3 P. Dummett
1 M. Dúbravka
18 L. Karius
20 L. Hall
47 L. Miley
21 T. Livramento

Coach: E. Howe

Paris SG

4-2-3-1
99 G. Donnarumma G
2 A. Hakimi D
5 Marquinhos D
37 M. Škriniar D
21 L. Hernández D
4 M. Ugarte M
33 W. Zaïre-Emery M
10 O. Dembélé M
7 K. Mbappé M
23 R. Kolo Muani M
9 Gonçalo Ramos F
Bench (8)
29 B. Barcola
17 Vitinha
15 Danilo Pereira
28 Carlos Soler
26 N. Mukiele
8 Fabián Ruiz
1 K. Navas
80 Arnau Tenas

Coach: Luis Enrique

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.