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Premier League

Referee: C Pawson

Newcastle

U S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Brentford

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Brentford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

75%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,0

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,44 xG 0,50

56% Possession 44%

9 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 14. · Brentford 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	+9.0	15
2	Tottenham	5	4	1	0	+8	+2.5	13
3	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+8	+4.3	13
4	Brighton	5	4	0	1	+8	+1.7	12
5	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+4	+4.6	10
6	West Ham	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.4	10
7	Aston Villa	5	3	0	2	+1	+2.9	9
8	Crystal Palace	5	2	1	2	-1	-0.9	7
9	Fulham	5	2	1	2	-5	-8.3	7
10	Brentford	4	1	3	0	+3	+5.4	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.9	6
12	Man United	5	2	0	3	-4	-0.3	6
13	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+0	+4.1	4
14	Newcastle	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.9	3
15	Wolves	5	1	0	4	-6	-3.0	3
16	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.7	2
17	Sheffield United	5	0	1	4	-4	-8.1	1
18	Everton	4	0	1	3	-6	+0.5	1
19	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.6	0
20	Luton	4	0	0	4	-8	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.6	7
2	Aston Villa	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.4	6
3	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.6	6
4	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.6	6
5	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
6	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
7	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.7	6
8	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.4	4
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.8	3
10	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
11	Brentford	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.9	3
12	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+0	-3.4	3
13	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
14	Fulham	2	1	0	1	-2	-3.6	3
15	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-2	-5.7	1
16	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
17	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
18	Everton	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
19	Wolves	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.0	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	+7.4	9
2	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+1.4	7
3	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
5	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+5	+0.8	6
6	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	-1	-0.8	4
7	Fulham	3	1	1	1	-3	-4.7	4
8	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
9	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
11	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.1	3
12	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-5	-1.5	3
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.6	1
14	Everton	2	0	1	1	-4	-1.0	1
15	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.3	0
16	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
17	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
18	Man United	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.0	0
19	Luton	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.