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Ligue 1

Referee: W Delajod

Paris SG

U S S T S

4–0

Full-time

Marseille

U S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

40%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 70%

80%

60%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,4

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,94 xG 0,66

77% Possession 23%

15 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 7. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brest	6	4	1	1	+2	+3.0	13
2	Nice	6	3	3	0	+4	+3.9	12
3	Monaco	6	3	2	1	+7	+5.7	11
4	Strasbourg	6	3	1	2	-1	+0.7	10
5	Le Havre	6	2	3	1	+3	-2.3	9
6	Marseille	5	2	3	0	+3	+5.6	9
7	Paris SG	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.0	8
8	Rennes	6	1	5	0	+4	+4.9	8
9	Nantes	6	2	2	2	+0	-5.3	8
10	Lille	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.5	8
11	Metz	6	2	2	2	-3	-5.5	8
12	Reims	5	2	1	2	+2	+2.1	7
13	Montpellier	6	1	3	2	+0	+1.0	6
14	Lorient	6	1	3	2	-2	-4.2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	-7.7	6
16	Lens	6	1	1	4	-6	+0.1	4
17	Lyon	6	0	2	4	-8	-7.4	2
18	Clermont	6	0	1	5	-7	-2.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Strasbourg	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.0	7
2	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.5	7
3	Brest	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.9	7
4	Monaco	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.8	6
5	Le Havre	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.7	6
6	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.2	6
7	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+6.2	5
8	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
9	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
10	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	-3.7	5
11	Paris SG	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.8	4
12	Lens	3	1	1	1	+0	+3.3	4
13	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.3	3
14	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
15	Metz	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.3	2
16	Montpellier	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.7	2
17	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.1	1
18	Clermont	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.3	7
2	Brest	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.0	6
3	Metz	3	2	0	1	-2	-5.1	6
4	Monaco	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.9	5
5	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
6	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	+2	+0.3	4
7	Reims	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
8	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-2	-5.6	4
9	Le Havre	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.0	3
10	Rennes	3	0	3	0	+0	-1.3	3
11	Nantes	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
12	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.3	3
13	Marseille	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.1	2
14	Lille	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.3	2
15	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.3	1
16	Clermont	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.1	1
17	Lorient	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.8	1
18	Lens	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.