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Bundesliga

Referee: B Dankert

Mainz

T U T U T

2–0

Full-time

RB Leipzig

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

2,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

89%

78%

Both score Ø 61%

78%

44%

Average goals

3,7

3,6

Scored

1,0

2,8

Conceded

2,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,11 xG 0,49

33% Possession 67%

10 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

5 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 18. · RB Leipzig 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	9	8	1	0	+19	+10.4	25
2	Bayern Munich	9	7	2	0	+27	+20.9	23
3	Stuttgart	9	7	0	2	+16	+11.1	21
4	Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+9	+6.4	21
5	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+18	+4.7	20
6	Hoffenheim	9	6	0	3	+4	-1.5	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	9	3	5	1	+3	+0.3	14
8	Freiburg	9	4	1	4	-6	-1.3	13
9	Wolfsburg	9	4	0	5	-1	+0.3	12
10	Augsburg	9	3	2	4	-3	+0.1	11
11	M'gladbach	9	2	3	4	-4	-0.2	9
12	Werder Bremen	9	3	0	6	-4	-3.9	9
13	Bochum	10	1	5	4	-14	-9.7	8
14	Heidenheim	9	2	1	6	-9	-10.2	7
15	Darmstadt	10	2	1	7	-18	-11.8	7
16	Union Berlin	9	2	0	7	-8	-1.2	6
17	FC Koln	9	1	1	7	-14	-8.3	4
18	Mainz	9	0	3	6	-15	-6.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	5	5	0	0	+12	+7.8	15
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+20	+14.7	13
3	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+5	+5.7	13
4	Stuttgart	5	4	0	1	+13	+8.6	12
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+13	+3.9	11
6	Wolfsburg	4	3	0	1	+4	+1.7	9
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	3	0	+3	+2.8	9
8	Werder Bremen	5	3	0	2	+2	-0.1	9
9	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.2	9
10	Augsburg	5	2	2	1	+1	+1.0	8
11	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	-1	-3.5	6
12	Darmstadt	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.5	4
13	M'gladbach	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.0	4
14	Bochum	4	0	3	1	-2	+0.8	3
15	Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.3	3
16	FC Koln	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.0	3
17	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.5	3
18	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	5	5	0	0	+7	-0.1	15
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+7	+6.1	10
3	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+7	+2.5	10
4	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	+5	+0.8	9
5	Stuttgart	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.5	9
6	Dortmund	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.8	8
7	M'gladbach	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.8	5
8	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.5	5
9	Bochum	6	1	2	3	-12	-10.5	5
10	Freiburg	5	1	1	3	-8	-2.6	4
11	Union Berlin	5	1	0	4	-3	+1.3	3
12	Augsburg	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
13	Wolfsburg	5	1	0	4	-5	-1.4	3
14	Darmstadt	5	1	0	4	-14	-10.3	3
15	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-8	-4.9	2
16	Heidenheim	5	0	1	4	-8	-6.7	1
17	FC Koln	5	0	1	4	-11	-7.3	1
18	Werder Bremen	4	0	0	4	-6	-3.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.