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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Barcelona

S S U S S

1–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 75%

70%

80%

Points per game

2,4

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

60%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,2

2,1

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,55 xG 1,07

52% Possession 48%

15 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 3. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	11	9	1	1	+12	+4.9	28
2	Real Madrid	10	8	1	1	+14	+9.4	25
3	Barcelona	10	7	3	0	+12	+13.3	24
4	Ath Madrid	9	7	1	1	+15	+7.8	22
5	Sociedad	10	5	3	2	+6	-1.1	18
6	Ath Bilbao	10	5	2	3	+6	+6.2	17
7	Vallecano	10	4	4	2	-1	+1.1	16
8	Valencia	10	4	2	4	+1	+0.6	14
9	Betis	10	3	5	2	-2	-3.0	14
10	Las Palmas	11	4	2	5	-2	-2.2	14
11	Osasuna	10	4	1	5	-3	-3.1	13
12	Getafe	10	2	5	3	-3	-4.1	11
13	Sevilla	9	2	3	4	+1	-3.2	9
14	Villarreal	10	2	3	5	-4	-2.9	9
15	Cadiz	10	2	3	5	-6	-6.3	9
16	Alaves	10	2	3	5	-6	+0.4	9
17	Mallorca	10	1	5	4	-4	-3.2	8
18	Celta	11	1	3	7	-9	-2.2	6
19	Granada	10	1	3	6	-10	-10.1	6
20	Almeria	11	0	3	8	-17	-2.3	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+10	+6.2	15
2	Girona	6	5	0	1	+7	+2.6	15
3	Sociedad	6	4	2	0	+7	+0.5	14
4	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+8	+6.8	12
5	Ath Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+4.8	12
6	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+6	+5.7	10
7	Valencia	5	3	0	2	+4	+3.7	9
8	Getafe	5	2	3	0	+2	+1.0	9
9	Betis	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.6	8
10	Sevilla	6	2	2	2	+3	+0.0	8
11	Cadiz	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.0	8
12	Las Palmas	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.1	8
13	Alaves	5	2	1	2	-2	+2.0	7
14	Granada	5	1	2	2	-3	-5.0	5
15	Vallecano	4	1	2	1	-5	-0.6	5
16	Villarreal	6	1	1	4	-3	-2.5	4
17	Osasuna	5	1	1	3	-3	+0.1	4
18	Mallorca	4	0	3	1	-1	-2.9	3
19	Almeria	6	0	2	4	-6	+1.6	2
20	Celta	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	4	1	1	+6	+2.6	13
2	Girona	5	4	1	0	+5	+2.2	13
3	Vallecano	6	3	2	1	+4	+1.7	11
4	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+9	+3.0	10
5	Barcelona	5	2	3	0	+2	+7.0	9
6	Osasuna	5	3	0	2	+0	-3.2	9
7	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+0	+0.5	7
8	Las Palmas	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
9	Betis	6	1	3	2	-6	-5.5	6
10	Villarreal	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.5	5
11	Mallorca	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.4	5
12	Valencia	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.0	5
13	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.6	4
14	Celta	5	1	1	3	-2	-1.6	4
15	Alaves	5	0	2	3	-4	-1.6	2
16	Getafe	5	0	2	3	-5	-5.1	2
17	Sevilla	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.2	1
18	Granada	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.1	1
19	Cadiz	5	0	1	4	-8	-9.4	1
20	Almeria	5	0	1	4	-11	-3.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.