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Champions League
Referee: I Kovacs
Porto
S S T S S
5–3
Full-time
Shakhtar Donetsk
T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
83%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,2
3,7
Scored
2,5
1,3
Conceded
0,7
2,3
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 60%
60%
60%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
60%
60%
Both score Ø 60%
60%
60%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,4
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,70 xG 1,59
49% Possession 51%
20 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 6
6 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 1
1 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

19. Sep -23 Shakhtar Donetsk – Porto 1–3

Match report

Porto Shakhtar Donetsk
Cláudio Ramos 🟨
-5′
1–0 Galeno ⚽
Evanilson
9′
29′
⚽ D. Sikan 1–1
O. Zubkov
31′
ℹ️ Danylo Sikan
VAR: Goal confirmed
2–1 Galeno ⚽
Pepê Aquino
43′
Half-time 2–1
54′
🟨 Georgiy Sudakov
59′
🔁 Newerton
↦ D. Kryskiv
3–1 M. Taremi ⚽
Galeno
62′
72′
⚽ S. Eustáquio 4–1
own goal
73′
🔁 K. Kelsy
↦ Y. Rakitskyi
5–1 Pepe ⚽
Galeno
75′
João Mário 🔁
↦ J. Sánchez
77′
Francisco Conceição 🔁
↦ Pepê Aquino
81′
André Franco 🔁
↦ Evanilson
82′
M. Grujić 🔁
↦ S. Eustáquio
82′
6–1 Francisco Conceição ⚽
82′
85′
🔁 Y. Nazaryna
↦ A. Bondarenko
86′
🔁 Eguinaldo
↦ O. Zubkov
Iván Jaime 🔁
↦ Galeno
88′
88′
⚽ Eguinaldo 6–2
T. Stepanenko
90′
🟨 Yehor Nazaryna
91′
🟨 Valeriy Bondar
Full-time 6–2

Line-ups

Porto

4-4-2
99 Diogo Costa G
15 J. Sánchez D
3 Pepe D
2 Fábio Cardoso D
12 Z. Sanusi D
11 Pepê Aquino M
22 A. Varela M
6 S. Eustáquio M
13 Galeno M
30 Evanilson F
9 M. Taremi F
Bench (12)
23 João Mário
10 Francisco Conceição
20 André Franco
8 M. Grujić
17 Iván Jaime
21 Fran Navarro
4 David Carmo
14 Cláudio Ramos
19 D. Namaso
70 Gonçalo Borges
18 Wendell
87 Bernardo Folha

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Shakhtar Donetsk

4-1-4-1
31 D. Riznyk G
13 G. Gocholeishvili D
5 V. Bondar D
44 Y. Rakitskyi D
22 M. Matviienko D
6 T. Stepanenko M
11 O. Zubkov M
21 A. Bondarenko M
10 H. Sudakov M
8 D. Kryskiv M
14 D. Sikan F
Bench (12)
39 Newerton
18 K. Kelsy
29 Y. Nazaryna
7 Eguinaldo
16 I. Azarovi
1 A. Rudko
23 Pedrinho
3 S. Lemkin
9 M. Shved
32 E. Kozik
4 D. Castillo
25 N. Miroshi

Coach: M. Pusic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Kovacs · 37 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.