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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Lille

S T T T T

3–3

Full-time

Strasbourg

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

25%

100%

Average goals

2,3

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

2,75 xG 3,23

64% Possession 36%

15 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 9. · Strasbourg 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+13	+9.0	12
2	Marseille	4	3	1	0	+8	+1.8	10
3	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	+5.5	10
4	Lens	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.7	8
5	Nice	5	2	1	2	+8	+5.7	7
6	Nantes	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.7	7
7	Reims	4	2	1	1	+0	-4.7	7
8	Rennes	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.7	6
9	Lille	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.1	6
10	Le Havre	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.3	6
11	Strasbourg	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.3	5
12	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.2	5
13	Lyon	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
14	Brest	4	1	0	3	-4	-2.1	3
15	Auxerre	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.2	3
16	St Etienne	5	1	0	4	-14	-10.1	3
17	Angers	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.3	1
18	Montpellier	4	0	1	3	-11	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+8	+5.1	6
2	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.9	6
3	Nice	2	1	1	0	+8	+4.7	4
4	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.9	4
5	Strasbourg	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.0	4
6	Lens	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.6	4
7	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
8	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.5	4
9	Nantes	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.3	3
10	Brest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
11	Lille	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
12	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.0	3
13	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.5	3
14	Reims	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
15	St Etienne	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
16	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
17	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.1	1
18	Angers	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.9	6
2	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.9	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+5	+5.2	6
4	Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
5	Reims	2	1	1	0	+1	-3.3	4
6	Lens	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.1	4
7	Lille	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.0	3
8	Nice	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.0	3
9	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
10	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
11	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
12	Angers	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.6	1
13	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
14	Rennes	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.2	0
15	Auxerre	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.5	0
16	Brest	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.0	0
17	Montpellier	2	0	0	2	-9	-4.1	0
18	St Etienne	3	0	0	3	-13	-8.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.