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Ligue 1
Referee: B Dechepy
Le Havre
T S S T T
0–3
Full-time
Lille
T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Havre Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
2,0
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
40%
40%
Points per game
1,2
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
60%
40%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
3,4
3,0
Scored
1,4
1,6
Conceded
2,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,41 xG 3,58
38% Possession 62%
7 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 10
0 Blocked shots 5
8 Goalkeeper saves 4
1 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Le Havre 11. · Lille 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 6 5 1 0 +15 +11.8 16
2 Marseille 5 4 1 0 +9 -0.4 13
3 Monaco 5 4 1 0 +8 +6.9 13
4 Lens 6 2 4 0 +3 +4.7 10
5 Nice 6 2 2 2 +8 +4.8 8
6 Nantes 5 2 2 1 +3 +0.4 8
7 Reims 5 2 2 1 +0 -6.0 8
8 Rennes 6 2 1 3 +1 -0.0 7
9 Lille 5 2 1 2 +1 +0.6 7
10 Strasbourg 5 1 3 1 +1 +0.8 6
11 Le Havre 5 2 0 3 -3 -1.7 6
12 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 -4 -3.2 6
13 Brest 6 2 0 4 -5 -6.2 6
14 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 -2 +4.5 5
15 Lyon 5 1 1 3 -5 -0.3 4
16 Montpellier 5 1 1 3 -10 -3.4 4
17 St Etienne 5 1 0 4 -14 -10.1 3
18 Angers 5 0 2 3 -6 -3.1 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Le Havre Lille
23′
J. David 0–1
O. Sahraoui
35′
J. David 0–2
O. Sahraoui
Yassine Kechta 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–2
S. Ngoura 🔁
↦ Y. Kechta
58′
D. Kuzyaev 🔁
↦ J. Casimir
59′
O. Targhalline 🔁
↦ L. Nego
59′
E. Sabbi 🔁
↦ A. Joujou
59′
68′
🟨 Benjamin André
74′
🔁 M. Bakker
↦ G. Gudmundsson
74′
🔁 R. Cabella
↦ O. Sahraoui
79′
J. David 0–3
E. Zhegrova
82′
🔁 T. Meunier
↦ Tiago Santos
83′
🔁 A. Bouaddi
↦ B. André
85′
🔁 E. Mbappé
↦ E. Zhegrova
Arthur Desmas 🟨
94′
95′
Angel Gomes
penalty missed
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Le Havre

5-4-1
30 A. Desmas G
7 L. Nego D
93 A. Sangante D
6 É. Youté D
4 G. Lloris D
27 C. Opéri D
10 J. Casimir M
94 A. Touré M
8 Y. Kechta M
21 A. Joujou M
45 I. Soumaré F
Bench (9)
77 S. Ngoura
14 D. Kuzyaev
5 O. Targhalline
11 E. Sabbi
22 Y. Salmier
1 M. Gorgelin
29 S. Grandsir
18 Y. Zouaoui
19 R. Ndiaye

Coach: D. Digard

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
22 Tiago Santos D
18 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
5 G. Gudmundsson D
21 B. André M
26 André Gomes M
23 E. Zhegrova M
8 A. Gomes M
11 O. Sahraoui M
9 J. David F
Bench (9)
20 M. Bakker
10 R. Cabella
12 T. Meunier
32 A. Bouaddi
29 E. Mbappé
1 V. Mannone
19 M. Fernandez-Pardo
27 M. Bayo
2 A. Mandi

Coach: B. Génésio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,55
U
3,71
B ✓
1,80
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,04
U2,5
1,81
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

B Dechepy · 111 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.