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Bundesliga

Referee: F Brych

Dortmund

T T S S T

4–0

Full-time

Freiburg

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

80%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

80%

40%

Average goals

3,6

2,4

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,34 xG 0,74

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 7

7 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 0

11 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Dortmund 7. · Freiburg 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	9	2	0	+29	+20.3	29
2	RB Leipzig	10	6	3	1	+10	+0.5	21
3	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	2	2	+10	+1.4	20
4	Leverkusen	10	4	5	1	+5	+9.6	17
5	Freiburg	10	5	2	3	+2	+5.6	17
6	Union Berlin	10	4	4	2	+1	-3.2	16
7	Dortmund	10	5	1	4	+0	+3.4	16
8	Werder Bremen	10	4	3	3	-4	+0.3	15
9	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+1	+1.0	14
10	Mainz	10	3	4	3	+1	-3.4	13
11	Stuttgart	10	3	4	3	+0	+2.7	13
12	Wolfsburg	10	3	3	4	+1	-2.1	12
13	Augsburg	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.9	12
14	Heidenheim	10	3	1	6	-2	+2.0	10
15	Hoffenheim	10	2	3	5	-6	-8.2	9
16	St Pauli	10	2	2	6	-5	-5.3	8
17	Holstein Kiel	10	1	2	7	-13	-7.8	5
18	Bochum	10	0	2	8	-20	-11.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	5	5	0	0	+8	+7.4	15
2	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+12	+10.4	13
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+7	+2.4	11
4	Augsburg	6	3	2	1	+3	+4.2	11
5	Union Berlin	5	3	2	0	+3	+0.8	11
6	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	1	0	+9	+3.1	10
7	Freiburg	5	3	1	1	+2	+4.6	10
8	M'gladbach	5	3	0	2	+2	+1.1	9
9	Stuttgart	5	2	2	1	+4	+7.8	8
10	Leverkusen	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.8	8
11	Hoffenheim	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.4	6
12	Mainz	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5
13	Werder Bremen	5	1	2	2	-5	-1.9	5
14	Heidenheim	5	1	1	3	-2	+3.0	4
15	Holstein Kiel	5	1	0	4	-10	-4.0	3
16	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-4	-1.2	2
17	St Pauli	5	0	2	3	-6	-0.6	2
18	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+17	+9.8	16
2	Wolfsburg	5	3	1	1	+5	-0.9	10
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	1	1	+3	-1.9	10
4	Werder Bremen	5	3	1	1	+1	+2.2	10
5	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.7	10
6	Leverkusen	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.8	9
7	Mainz	4	2	2	0	+4	-3.4	8
8	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	+0	+1.0	7
9	St Pauli	5	2	0	3	+1	-4.8	6
10	Heidenheim	5	2	0	3	+0	-1.0	6
11	M'gladbach	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.0	5
12	Union Berlin	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
13	Stuttgart	5	1	2	2	-4	-5.1	5
14	Hoffenheim	5	0	3	2	-3	-4.9	3
15	Holstein Kiel	5	0	2	3	-3	-3.8	2
16	Dortmund	5	0	1	4	-8	-4.0	1
17	Augsburg	5	0	1	4	-13	-9.1	1
18	Bochum	5	0	0	5	-11	-6.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.