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Champions League
Referee: G Kabakov
Lille
U S S U S
3–2
Full-time
Sturm Graz
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,8
2,3
Conceded
1,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/5 matches
Win Ø 38%
56%
20%
Points per game
1,9
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 32%
44%
20%
Both score Ø 44%
67%
20%
Average goals
2,4
1,6
Scored
1,4
0,4
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,4
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,05 xG 1,23
67% Possession 33%
18 Shots 10
9 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
9 Corners 2
0 Offside 4
6 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

14. Mar -24 Lille – Sturm Graz 1–1 7. Mar -24 Sturm Graz – Lille 0–3

Match report

Lille Sturm Graz
8′
🟨 Tochi Chukwuani
Osame Sahraoui ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
17′
1–0 O. Sahraoui ⚽
Alexsandro Ribeiro
37′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 M. Bakker ⚽
47′
47′
⚽ M. Biereth 2–1
W. Bøving
49′
⚽ O. Kiteishvili 2–2
T. Chukwuani
N. Mukau 🔁
↦ A. Bouaddi
56′
M. Fernandez-Pardo 🔁
↦ R. Cabella
68′
G. Gudmundsson 🔁
↦ Ismaily
68′
Mitchel Bakker 🟨
74′
H. Haraldsson 🔁
↦ M. Bakker
80′
M. Bayo 🔁
↦ O. Sahraoui
80′
3–2 H. Haraldsson ⚽
J. David
81′
84′
🔁 S. Hierländer
↦ J. Gorenc Stankovič
85′
🔁 T. Horvat
↦ W. Bøving
87′
🔁 S. Jatta
↦ T. Chukwuani
87′
🔁 A. Malić
↦ M. Johnston
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
12 T. Meunier D
18 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
31 Ismaily D
21 B. André M
32 A. Bouaddi M
20 M. Bakker M
10 R. Cabella M
11 O. Sahraoui M
9 J. David F
Bench (10)
17 N. Mukau
19 M. Fernandez-Pardo
5 G. Gudmundsson
7 H. Haraldsson
27 M. Bayo
1 V. Mannone
2 A. Mandi
16 M. Caillard
36 O. Touré
39 I. Cossier

Coach: B. Génésio

Sturm Graz

4-3-1-2
53 D. Khudyakov G
2 M. Johnston D
35 N. Geyrhofer D
5 G. Wüthrich D
24 D. Lavalée D
21 T. Chukwuani M
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič M
8 M. Yalcouyé M
10 O. Kiteishvili M
15 W. Bøving F
18 M. Biereth F
Bench (12)
25 S. Hierländer
19 T. Horvat
20 S. Jatta
23 A. Malić
9 E. Yardımcı
43 J. Hödl
14 L. Zvonarek
47 E. Aiwu
45 C. Wiener-Pucher
36 A. Camara
17 E. Karić
40 M. Bignetti

Coach: J. Säumel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Kabakov · 28 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.